Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Ziocons: "Didn't 'they 'like the freedom?' Don't "they" realize what a debt of gratitude 'they' owe us? How could this be?"


So, Iraq is a done no-deal! Moving to Afghanistan Lang writes:

"In New York a couple of years ago I debated the "big war" men over the question "Can the US ever win in Afghanistan?" I insisted at that time that an attempt to re-design Afghanistan would ultimately fail because attempts to re-create whole countries in our image are inherently doomed to failure. Why is that? Simple. Such attempts cost too much, last too long and inherently become increasingly brutal as frustration sets in on both sides. People rebel against that brutality with the passage of time.
 'يا يما ... وين رحت؟ ارجع لمك يا يما ... يا حبيبي...'

COIN as a doctrine was formalized in the colonial powers following World War 2 as a response to national wars of liberation in their overseas posessions. This doctrine was imported to the United States in the Kennedy era as a panacea for Soviet and Chinese sponsorship of such revolts. I was a practioner of that doctrine in the '60s and '70s. It rarely worked for us in any situation in which large scale "investment" of resources was required. The US Government and its citizens consistently balked at the effort if the costs got high enough. The colonial powers persisted far longer than we generally did. This was understandable since the colonial powers were fighting to defend what they saw as their ownership of battlefield countries.
I advocate a counter-terrorism based strategy for Afghanistan based on; small SOF forces, remotely controlled weapons, good quality targeting intelligence and cooperation with whatever Afghan government eventually proves viable. If a strategy of that kind had been adopted instead of COIN, a small but substantial continuing presence serving such a strategy would have been possible in Afghanistan..
Time has moved on. Our economy and those of our NATO allies are shambles. Social unrest in our midst is beginning to focus on these wars as a proximate factor in economic decline. Ten years have passed. A multitude have been struck down in the armed forces. Patience is fast disappearing. Military and political leders who appear to cling to the war they know rather than a peace in which their power will diminish look increasingly self absorbed.
After 2014? Look for a very small presence in Afghanistan but a continuing war against our enemies, a war in the shadows."

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