Tuesday, September 13, 2011

'Imagine Lebanon without Assad!'

MEOW Lebanon writes:
"On September 11, 2001, almost 3,000 people died in the US in a terrorist attack targeting innocent civilians. By September 11, 2011, almost 3,000 people have died in Syria in terrorist attacks.... Now some, including Iran, are starting to think of Syria after Assad, except the Arabs, and mainly Lebanon...
March 8 leaders are worried that the fall of the Syrian regime will wipe away their dreams of controlling Lebanon and its institutions. Hezbollah and Syria’s other proxies in Lebanon will lose their only Arab ally, and the Party of God, which is becoming known as a backer of dictatorships in the region due to its staunch support of Assad, will also lose its access to arms smuggling routes if the Syrian regime falls. This does not mean that Hezbollah will disappear from Lebanon as soon as Assad is ousted. It will still have its arsenal and will certainly use it to sustain the balance of power in Lebanon, as long as Iran wants this balance to stay.  
Assad’s fall would also not mean that the March 14 coalition would come out a winner... Saad Hariri is hiding in Paris while his aides and MPs are reacting to the uprising in Syria as if it were a Sunni affair. Most of the March 14 Christian leaders are being cautious, noting that Assad might be necessary for the safety and preservation of the Christians and ..., Walid Jumblatt, he is still swinging between his fear of Hezbollah and his desire to see Assad fall. All that swinging left him little space for thinking about the Syrian people.
March 8 leaders lost their ability to react shrewdly because of their fears, while March 14 leaders lost their ability, if there was ever one, to strategize..."

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