Monday, August 15, 2011

Is Turkey really (really) trying to prevent a 'disastrous regional conflict'?

"...Some analysts suggest there's already a tacit agreement among U.S. and Saudis that Turkey will take the lead in shaping any international response to the Syria crisis. The Israeli media has suggested that some in Washington see the breakdown between Turkey and Iran over Syria as an opportunity to draw Ankara back into the U.S.-Israeli camp on dealing with Iran...
And while Syria offers Iran its one solid foothold in the Arab world, Tehran needs Turkey's friendship just as much -- if not more so, because of Turkey's staunch opposition to Washington's approach to dealing with the nuclear issue. Indeed, Iran reports an 80% increase in trade with Turkey over the first half of 2011 compared with the corresponding period for last year, despite U.S.-led efforts to isolate Iran's economy.
Even if the Syria crisis has strained relations between Turkey and Iran, it's important to remember that Turkey's break with the U.S. on how to handle the Iranian nuclear file were not based on some ideological affinity with Tehran, or readiness to accept it achieving nuclear-weapons status; on the contrary, Ankara broke away from a U.S. strategy it believes is failing, and is more likely to plunge the region into a disastrous conflict than to promote stability. That's unlikely to change regardless of what becomes of Assad. But the same concern to prevent a disastrous regional conflict will likely prompt Turkey to raise pressure on Damascus in the coming days and weeks regardless of Iran's preferences."

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