Thursday, August 11, 2011

A realignment of the stars!

"... Bashar also had the support of the pan-Arabists. An example is Azmi Bishara, ...Now these people (with Qatari sponsorship) have come to think of Bashar as an obstacle to the revival of pan-Arabism.
Turkey, under Prime Minister Erdogan, had become a close ally of Syria. But Erdogan has no reservations regarding the possibility that Muslim radicals might come to power in Syria if Bashar falls. On the contrary, the Sunni radicals and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood are Erdogan's close allies. So Turkey has nothing to lose if Bashar falls...
The weaker Syria is, the stronger Lebanon will be. Any regime change in Syria could be a blow to Hizbullah, even though Hizbullah does represent many of the Shiites. It is a deeply rooted, authentic Lebanese Shiite power center. However, it was the help of Syria and Iran that turned Hizbullah into a regional power. Taking Syria out of the equation could reduce Hizbullah to a more reasonable size - to become a strong Lebanese party but not more than that...
A new regime in Syria could mean a return to the 1950s and 1960s when there was a weak, decentralized Syrian government with strong regions. Each region has its own ethnic and communal characteristics, and there may be a coup d'état from time to time and a lack of stability. The worst scenario is that Syria will turn into a new Iraq ... The Syrian opposition will eventually take over and, as in the case of Egypt, they know that their interests lie with friendship with Western countries like the United States, and not with Iran. So in the long run, a new Syrian regime might be better for Israel than this current regime."

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