The puzzle for Obama is how to help the 'Foggy Bottom' Syrian opposition gain power without foreign military intervention ...

"As the Obama administration steps up its support for regime change in Syria, the Arab Spring is moving into what could be its hottest phase. The puzzle is how to help the Syrian opposition gain power without foreign military intervention -- and without triggering sectarian massacres inside the country...
Clinton has left the door open slightly for reformers within the Assad regime. Last Saturday in Istanbul, she urged "an opposition that can provide a pathway, hopefully in peaceful cooperation with the government, to a better future." The administration is closely monitoring "who in the current power structure might be amenable to a transition," says a senior White House official.
A second White House official summarizes the new approach this way: "The Assad ship is sinking. The most important thing is to get people to realize this, so that, hopefully, they will jump off the ship and get on the lifeboat." For the U.S., this means working with Syrian dissidents, and also with Turkey and other regional powers that can help broker change.
The administration wants to encourage the Syrian opposition inside the country to unite, develop a clear agenda and build an inclusive leadership. Leading that effort is Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador in Damascus; an administration official describes him as a "vehicle for transition."...
A road map for the opposition was sketched in an interview by Radwan Ziadeh, a visiting scholar at George Washington University who closely follows the dissident groups...
The Syrian equation is shaped by two "X-factors." The first is whether the army will split, with influential officers moving away from the regime...The second wild card is sectarian violence between dissident Sunnis and the ruling Alawite minority. The latest grim warning came on Sunday and Monday, when the U.S estimates that 15 to 30 Syrians were killed in ethnic fighting in Homs. A White House official called those reports "really worrisome."
The strategic stakes are high in Syria partly because Assad is allying himself ever more closely with the stridently anti-Western regime in Iran. White House officials last week were circulating a news report that Iran had pledged $5.8 billion in emergency aid to Assad's regime. Tehran and Damascus may once have pretended that they supported the Arab Spring, but no longer. If Assad falls to citizen protest, the Iranians know they will be the next target..."