STATE Department Official: "The odds of Assad's survival have significantly increased over the past couple of weeks!"

MEPGS; Excerpts;

President Obama's decision to speak out specifically in  favor of the pre-1967 Israel borders as a starting point for Arab-Israeli peace talks, not only overshadowed the rest of his Middle East speech but once again underlined the chaotic nature of decision making in his Administration.  The debate over the wording of this approach raged until just hours before the President made his address.  The Israelis, too, were aware of the debate as were State Department officials, who watched the cable traffic between Washington and Tel Aviv... ... Long time observers believe that this decision was another example of the President's overweening self confidence in his own judgement.  He entertained differing opinions from White House staff (There was little input from veteran Middle East officials), but even those who were not impressed with the outcome, say, in the words of one veteran official "It was pure Obama."
     Unspoken but often implied is an already self-confident President has become even more so, since his high risk decision making in dealing with Osama bin Laden turned out to be such a success.  However, that confidence, some say hubris, has only fed frustration among many veteran US Middle East experts.  "It's one thing to `take out' Bin Laden", says a long time US Middle East analyst, "... it is quite another to move boldly and quickly when whole countries are at stake." The first case in point, say these analysts, is the apparent stalemate in Libya.  US officials, who initially feared "mission creep,"  now worry about "mission fatigue."  As the US has "led from the rear" (an anonymous Administration official's phrase), NATO command has, in the view of a number of participants not proven up to the task.  With British and French ordinance in short supply at the beginning and some say again now, the Pentagon has been forced to fill in the gaps.  On a political level, well-placed sources say the White House now regrets the decision, made early on in the campaign to designate the ouster of Muammar Qaddafy as one of the goals of the Libyan intervention.  "It has informed the President's more careful formulation regarding Bashar Assad," says one well-placed source. [See below]... ... 
     In President Obama's attempt "to get on the right side of history,"... ... the Administration seems no closer to getting a grip on other more pressing issues in the region.  Although President Obama had some strong words for the situation in Bahrain, American efforts to mitigate what one official calls the "venal suppression of the Shia" there appear to have gained little traction.  Bahrain's King and Prime Minister continue to pursue a hard line.  And the Saudis are, if anything, proving to be even more obstinate.  Disappointment with the Saudis also extends to their apparent unwillingness to press Yemen's leader Ali Saleh to accept an arrangement for leaving office.  For their part, the Saudis have yet to recover from the unseemly manner they believe Egypt's Mubarak was treated by the US.  Now, they are engaged in an argument with the Egyptian military over plans to try Mubarak, the prospect of which outrages the Saudi ruling family, say US officials.
     Meanwhile, the Saudis have kept a low profile on the uprising in Syria.  Although Syria remains Iran's closest ally and prime conduit to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia, the Saudis, like Syria's contiguous neighbors do not appear to be willing to embrace regime change.  According to US analysts, caution about the future viability of the Assad regime, may be wise.  One State Department official says the odds of Assad's survival have significantly increased over the past couple of weeks...."