Friday, April 15, 2011

"..What comes next will depend on the large silent majority ..."

"... The movement is far from uniform, and divisions are becoming apparent as it grows. Calls for toppling Assad and defacing billboards of him are on the rise, but some protesters have specific demands. In Douma, some have called for the release of political prisoners and an end to shootings, while Mohammed says he wants "freedom" but is not yet sure what that means – "If good reforms are made, that may be enough."
And it would be wrong to say the movement is rampant or widespread. It may count many tens of thousands of supporters. But Syria is a country of more than 20 million people. And there may be as many Assad loyalists as there are protesters, people who through genuine admiration or fear of the alternative support the president.
Despite protesters from the Sunni majority being joined by some Kurds, Christians and reportedly Alawites from Assad's minority sect, they and many other Sunnis fear the rise of conservative Islam if Syria's secular state were to fall. Others look to Iraq and Lebanon as a forewarning. "We may not agree with everything, but the president has kept it safe for us," said one Christian in Damascus's Old City. A young female Muslim added: "He is young and understands us and is struggling against a regime he unintentionally inherited from his father."
Amid a standoff between protesters and the government, what comes next will depend on the large silent majority, including Sunni businessmen and religious figures. Almost all have the same aspirations to a life with dignity and without repression and for a chance to have more control over their lives and their country... Assad can fall back on a regime apparatus that, despite occasional reports of reluctance by army conscripts to open fire on protesters, is loyal....There are also Sunni loyalists in the regime who through a system of carefully doled out benefits are discouraged from leaving Assad's side. Each time they take to the streets, Syria's protesters know they have a hard battle ahead with an unpredictable end."

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