"... Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama administration's failure to prop up its ally of three decades Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, is sending signs of its displeasure and its move toward exploring alternative security arrangements. Last month, former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar reportedly went to Pakistan, ostensibly to discuss the possibility of importing Pakistani troops to help the Saudi regime suppress internal unrest should the need arise..... as a signal of possible Saudi interest in acquiring Pakistani nuclear weapons if Washington doesn't protect Riyadh from Iran's nuclear program.
"The momentum of the Arab revolutions has stalled, and the old Middle East is reasserting itself," said Marc Lynch, ..."the Israelis and Palestinians are saying, 'what about us?' The 'contain Iran' crowd is saying, don't forget about Iran." And the Saudis are playing up rising Sunni-Shiite tensions in the region, which "gives them an excuse," he added, to push their contain-Iran agenda, as well as to "equate Iranian subversion for use against their own Shia population. Any time Saudi Shia make demands for political rights, they are accused of being Iranian agents."
Technically, Bahrain's Sunni monarchy "invited" the Saudi troops in,...In reality, the March 14th Saudi invasion brought an abrupt end to efforts by Bahraini government moderates to open up a dialogue with Bahraini opposition parties. It has also empowered Sunni hardliners in the government -- who have carried out a brutal anti-Shiite witchhunt, arresting hundreds of doctors, lawyers, human rights activists, journalists and bloggers. Four of those detained have died in custody, Human Rights Watch said last week.
The U.S. has been unusually restrained in its public criticism of the Bahraini crackdown, in large part out of sensitivity to Riyadh. But in private, Middle East experts say, the Obama administration is working actively behind the scenes to reduce inflamed sectarian divisions. Washington has "pressed Bahrain to ease repression and gotten into some serious arguments with the Saudis about this behind closed doors," said Human Rights Watch's Tom Malinowski. "But in the last few weeks, they have not condemned the escalating viciousness of the [Bahraini] government's attacks...and have not publicly said what kinds of reforms they would like to see Bahrain undertake, as they did in Egypt."
The risk, Malinowski continued, is that "no matter how hard diplomats may be pressing privately, there is a public perception that the U.S. is softer on Bahrain because of Saudi pressure. And that poses a strategic risk: that the U.S. will be seen by Shi'a Muslims throughout the region as complicit in a sectarian campaign waged by Sunni autocracies against their legitimate aspirations. "
Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeff Feltman arrived in Bahrain Monday to try to convince the government to ease up on its crackdown, renew a dialogue with members of the opposition, and lift the state of emergency it imposed last month. But Washington Middle East experts say sectarian divisions have only hardened in Bahrain... "Unfortunately the dynamics of the region are such that opportunities are being created for Iran that were not there a couple weeks or months ago," said Heather Hurlburt, executive director of the progressive National Security Network, who recently returned from a trip to the United Arab Emirates.
Washington is trying to manage several competing needs and interests at once, she said. "One is to help the Saudis and other allies in the region think through what the new status quo is...a very challenging task that is not happening fast." Hulburt added that the U.S. is working "in a lot of these places to try to achieve outcomes that are the least violent and most conducive to our long-term interests. When that happens, you see a lot of lumps under the bed."..... a Washington Post oped earlier this month by former U.S. Ambassador to Israel and Egypt Martin Indyk was being read in Riyadh "as a warning shot to the Saudis, that people are getting sick of you," Lynch said.... Similarly, an oped by Donilon in the Financial Times Monday about Obama's nuclear non-proliferation goals led off with the usual swipes at Iran, a message that at first glance would seem to be about trying to offer reassurances to Riyadh:
"Iran, in particular, is trying to exploit the changes sweeping across the Middle East," Donilon wrote. "But the hypocrisy of claiming to support reform in other countries while suppressing it at home is obvious for all the world to see."
It's unclear the degree to which Washington thinks Riyadh should be immune from such logic."
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