Monday, April 11, 2011

"The simultaneous, energetic interference of all these ignorant external actors in Arab politics will, should it occur, be messy & expensive.."

"... For Saudi Arabia to adopt a policy of enforcing its preeminence constitutes a decision with a long and ominous tail. One might, way back in mid-February, have imagined a new Mideast in which Arabs would suddenly join hands and move forward, leading the whole world toward a better future. Such a joint approach would have avoided both revolutionary violence and counter-revolutionary violence. It would also have marginalized all those forces, be they local extremists, Iranian instigators, or Western/Israeli empire-builders, that might have been looking for opportunities to make trouble. ......... alas, hopes for that new Mideast today appear a bit naïve. ..... 
 To use the kitchen's lingo, here's one of Bandar's 'Aboyeurs'
Expect many cooks in the kitchen: some will manufacture incidents as excuses to intervene, some will get invitations from a neighboring state’s crooked politicians and then use that invitation as an excuse to commit murder, some will offer funds or soldiers or “look the other way” as mercenary gangs are hired, many will see an opportunity to clamp down on domestic dissent, and everyone on the outside will look for clients to support in the coming power struggle..... 
The Egyptian military has been visibly teetering on a precipice for weeks, oppressing protesters one minute, compromising with them the next, and it faces an immediate decision of crucial importance for democracy in Egypt: to postpone a rushed vote on constitutional amendments or to push it through. The Saudi decision to use force facilitates the same choice by all regional actors......... The simultaneous, energetic interference of all these ignorant external actors in Arab politics will, should it occur, be messy and expensive—for everyone. Saudi military intervention in Bahrain is not a move for stability. It is a move for reaction....  Riyadh’s little military adventure in Bahrain is just one step; Riyadh could still step back. But politicians have a hard time stepping back nimbly enough to avoid tripping: the ground seems always to be moving under their feet. That Riyadh made this move, even if the troops do nothing but have tea with the neighbors and then return home, will still have changed the regional political balance, and so today compromise is just a little bit harder than it was yesterday.

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