Tuesday, April 26, 2011

"The problem with Saudis is that they don’t know the limits of their ability (not much beyond their financial muscle)..."

'Hizb-u-Tahrir Anti-Syria demonstrations in Tripoli, Lebanon'
(Friedman)"...The basic problem the Saudis face is that they don’t know the limits of their ability (which is not much beyond their financial muscle) to manage the situation. If they miscalculate and overextend, they could find themselves in an untenable position. Therefore, the Saudis must be conservative. They cannot afford miscalculation. From the Saudi point of view, the critical element is a clear sign of long-term American commitment to the regime. American support for the Saudis in Bahrain has been limited, and the United States has not been aggressively trying to manage the situation in Yemen, given its limited ability to shape an outcome there. Coupled with the American position on Iraq, which is that it will remain only if asked — and then only with limited forces — the Saudis are clearly not getting the signals they want from the United States. In fact, what further worsens the Saudi position is that they cannot overtly align with the United States for their security needs. Nevertheless, they also have no other option. Exploiting this Saudi dilemma is a key part of the Iranian strategy...."

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Stratfor and George Friedman is CIA disinformation wall to wall, Texas funded and Texas based. No credibility whatsoever should be accorded to Stratfor, it's like Sorcha Faal & Debkafile....despite the razzmatazz in their prose, videos, maps and graphs....

Skeptical Founding Senior Member of the FLC said...

Notwithstanding 'anonymous' comment, (by and large correct) Friedman is right when stating that Saudi ability beyond flexing financial muscle is limited. But his prognosis is too much wishful thinking and lacking reality on the ground.