"... If consensus is reached on political reform, the regime is unlikely to come under pressure to reverse its foreign policy.."

"...Some pundits predict the weakening of Syria's external strategic position due to internal unrest. But if consensus is reached on political reform at home, the regime is unlikely to come under pressure to reverse its foreign policy. Others fear for the country's security and secular rule in an unstable regional environment. Progress towards democratisation is, in fact, Syria's best long-term bet for stability, internal cohesion, and enhanced regional influence. Syria's allies - Turkey and Hezbollah - realise the stakes and are urging the regime to heed the calls for reform. There is resistance to change from within the regime but it can be overcome by showing that preemption from the top is a more promising way forward than repression and bloodshed.

There is no incompatibility between a strong stance in the conflict with Israel and addressing the Syrian people's legitimate claims for social justice, jobs, freedom of speech, and political representation. Syria is at the crossroads. As protests are expected to continue in the coming weeks, two options are now on the table: brutal crackdown leading to unpredictable consequences; or transition to peaceful change in the system. Will repression continue to prevail? Will the president have the courage to initiate a national dialogue with all political and social trends? Whilst still open, the door is gradually closing as heavy civilian casualties continue to fall on Syrian streets.Only a genuine shift towards democracy would enable the regime to survive the revolutionary wave that is sweeping the region. All Syrians, like the rest of the Arab world, want to be masters of their own fate."