"The Al Saud sent an unintended invitation to Iran ..."

"Throughout the years, Saudi decision-making has been characterized by three fundamental principles—discretion, caution and cash. But last month, by deploying troops to Bahrain and lecturing Iran, the al-Sauds acted out of character. They sent an unintended invitation to Iran to intervene around the Persian Gulf, an invitation that Iran cannot refuse and one that might be the seed for the downfall of the al-Sauds and other GCC monarchies........  The Iran-Iraq War in all its savagery was a gift for the al-Sauds. Iranians and Iraqis killing each other was the best of both worlds; ...  After the bloody war, the period of standoff between the two Shia powers afforded the al-Sauds continued comfort. It appeared that devastation from the war, along with sanctions and continued policy ineptitude, would keep both countries backward for years to come. But Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait jolted the al-Sauds....  The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent ascendance of Shia to power there was a new blow to Saudi ambitions. Their worst nightmare was coming true.....  al-Sauds did little to discourage Saudi suicide bombers from going to Baghdad. But matters did not go as the al-Sauds hoped, and the Shia maintained their power in Iraq.

Today, the al-Sauds feel threatened as never before.... The Saudis believe the coming clash in the Persian Gulf is likely to be along the Shia-Sunni divide. But instead of proceeding as they have in the past, the al-Sauds are reacting viscerally against the Shia uprising in Bahrain and have stepped into a hornet’s nest that may well be the opening gambit to a Shia-Sunni clash across the Persian Gulf. ...... The Saudis fear that more humane treatment of the Shia in Bahrain would fuel demands and dissention among their own disenfranchised Shia, representing 10-15 percent of their population. So the al-Khalifas must mistreat their Shia to be in step with the mistreatment of Shia in Saudi Arabia!

Up to now, there is little evidence that Iran has interfered in Bahrain—if it has, its activities have been marginal. The Bahraini Shia have done all they can to distance themselves from the Iranian regime...  All this may now change.... What can we expect Iran to do in response to being overtly threatened by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait..... whom they hold in contempt. They know that today the US could still defend their client dictators, but with difficulty. The US is overstretched,... Its finances are near the breaking point, giving it limited ability to confront Iran in the Persian Gulf—much less in Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq. ..... The Saudi misstep affords Iran the perfect invitation to take on such a role more overtly and with much more justification than in the past..."