Wikileaks: Feltman: "...An unrelentingly bleak evening..."

S E C R E T BEIRUT 002643

SUBJECT: JUMBLATT CONCEDES VICTORY TO NASRALLAH, WORRIES ABOUT COUP D'ETAT AND THREATS 

1. (S/NF) On 8/14, the Ambassador spent an unrelentingly bleak evening with Walid Jumblatt, Marwan Hamadeh, Ghattas Khoury, and (joining late, France's ambassador) Bernard Emie. Nas粑allah's televised "victory speech" cast a pall over the discussion, with honking horns and cheering Shia making a ruckus on the nearby Beirut corniche. Jumblatt predicted that, whatever the physical losses and casualties to Lebanon, it would be impossible to reverse the appalling image of a victorious Hizballah 

 

3. (S/NF) Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh (Druse, allied with Jumblatt) hosted what turned out to be a three-hour dinner and downbeat discussion on 8/14 for Walid Jumblatt, former MP Ghattas Khoury (now an advisor to Saad Hariri), Ambassador Feltman, and -- joining late -- French Ambassador Bernard Emie. The evening started with the guests watching, live, Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's televised "victory speech." Almost immediately after the speech, the nearby Beirut corniche filled with honking horns and cheering Hizballah supporters, celebrating -- for hours -- the victory declared by their leader. The ebullient mood on the streets outside Hamadeh's seaview apartment contributed to the unrelentingly bleak mood of the March 14 figures inside, as other March 14 politicians called Hamadeh, Jumblatt, and Khoury intermittently throughout the evening to express fear -- and, in a few cases, a desire to quit Lebanon altogether. While the three Lebanese agree with the two ambassadors that it was, on one level, absurb to claim victory in a war that cost Lebanon thousands of casualties and billions of dollars in physical loses, they also insisted that it will be impossible to reverse the impression of victory over Israel. 4. (S/NF) Hamadeh, Jumblatt, and Khoury all had the same interpretation of Nasrallah's speech: "l'etat, c'est moi," Jumblatt quoted Napoleon (Sorry Mr. Feltman: That was Louis the XIV!) . This "coup d'etat" was symbolized by Nasrallah's financial commitments to give each displaced persons thousands of dollars to rebuild homes, replace furniture, rent temporary shelter for a year, and so forth. 5. (S/NF) The Lebanese also worried that Nasrallah's speech contained an implicit threat against the March 14 politicians, when Nasrallah made vague references to ministers who had questioned "the resistance" in cabinet sessions. While pleading with his guests not to let his long-term, live-in, and worried girlfriend know, Hamadeh distributed a text he said was from a Syrian internet site that was more explicit in the threat. According to this text, which cited sources close to Israeli Justice Minister Haim Ramon, Hamadeh had gone to Ambassador Feltman with the whereabouts of Hassan Nasrallah, to be passed to the Israelis in order to kill Nasrallah. The enormous explosions (that even shook the embassy compound, miles away) on 8/12 in the southern suburbs were, according to this article, a result of Hamadeh's messages to Ambassador Feltman. We will send an informal Embassy translation of this article septel.... 12. (S/NF) The Lebanese also spoke in frightened awe of the organizational abilities of Hizballah. Despite having so much of the Hizballah physical infrastructure destroyed -- office buildings, clinics, schools, charitable institutions all in ruins -- Hizballah was nevertheless able to mobilize bulldozers to clear roads in the south.  14. (S/NF) Israel "doesn't learn," Jumblatt lamented, saying that GOI actions had so weakened state institutions and state authority -- never much to begin with, the two ambassadors pointed out -- that they have "turned Siniora into Abu Mazen." ...  Jumblatt agreed that, if the Sunnis, Druse, and Christians would stand together, Nasrallah might think twice about a confrontation. But he then lashed out at Michel Aoun 粑"still in bed with Nasrallah") as well as the March 14 Christians and the Sunnis led by Saad Hariri. Opportunistic and interested in survival, the March 14 Maronites, he said, will soon start drifting back toward Syria, convinced that Syria is on the ascendency. And the Sunnis are just timid, afraid of that Sunni-Shia tensions will turn violent. 16. (S/NF) The Lebanese mused about what Parliament Speaker Berri's opinion of the Nasrallah speech might be. Berri was probably appalled, they agreed.....  17. (S/NF) Before sneaking out of Hamadeh's apartment via a service stairway, Jumblatt vowed that he would "continue to tell the truth," even if no one joined him. But he doubted anyone would listen. And, he added, "I don't know how much longer I will be around," suggesting additional worries about death threats. His last question before disappearing down the darkened stairwell was to Ambassador Feltman: "whatever happened to my visa waiver?" he asked. ..."