C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002504
SUBJECT: TFLE01: SINIORA BELIEVES HE HAS THE CONFIDENCE OF
HIS PEOPLE, THE SUPPORT OF HIS CABINET, AND THE COMMITMENT
OF THE FRENCH
1. (C/NF) In a meeting with the Ambassador and poloff late
on July 31, Prime Minister Siniora described the current situation with
IDF and Hizballah locked in close combat as extremely
difficult, with neither side able to break free of the other.
He said yesterday's attack on Qana had "opened eyes" and
might actually help make progress to a durable cease-fire...
3. (C/NF) Siniora said that, intellectually, he understood
the Israeli government when it states that it cannot accept a
cease-fire unless a credible stabilization force is already
in place. But for a multi-national force to step in right at
the moment of the guns going silent, he maintained, would
require a firm political solution in the form of a detailed
UN Security Council resolution....
4. (C/NF) Referring to his lengthy discussions with FM
Douste-Blazy, Siniora said the French are already writing the
initial draft resolution. He parried the Ambassador's
suggestion that his Government preface the introduction of
any resolution with a letter to the Security Council
requesting such action -- thereby making it more difficult
for Russia and China to object. Siniora maintained it was
already clear what was needed -- a detailed resolution -- and
such a letter would just add another step to the process. He
estimated that a resolution with the required specificity
could be ready for the Council's consideration late this
week.
5. (C/NF) Pressed by the Ambassador repeatedly by phone
throughout the evening about the need for a letter and for
him to play a leadership role by detailing what a
stabilization force would do, Siniora become increasingly
annoyed. Douste-Blazy, he said, does not see a letter as a
necessity. Moreover, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki was
arriving in Beirut later that evening (where he met with the
French). Mottaki surely is coming to enlist Hizballah
ministers, and perhaps Nabih Berri, to try to block a
stabilization force and adopt more hard-line positions in
general. Thus, Siniora said, the chances of his cabinet
approving a letter (which, under the limited powers Lebanon's
constitution gives the PM is a necessity) are "zero." If he
brings the proposed letter to the cabinet, not only will it
be rejected, but there is a danger the cabinet will then
break the hard-fought consensus on the "seven points."
6. (C/NF) With his domestically well-received Sunday
statement, PM Siniora said he hoped both his Government and
that of Israel could expeditiously accept the deal outlined
in his seven points. When asked if thought his plan would be
accepted without change, Siniora argued that if all the
points were addressed and an effective multi-national force
available to enforce its implementation, Israel would achieve
something it had not been able to achieve for decades -- a
secure and stable northern border. "They are getting what
they have always wanted," he declared, implying that if
Israel tried to get a better deal, the opportunity may well
be lost.
7. (C/NF) The Prime Minister said both GOI and GOL were
getting tied up in "details" and risked losing the main
objective -- peace and security for Israel, and peace and a
disarmed Hizballah for Lebanon. Siniora argued that only the
Iranian and Syrian regimes benefited from bickering over the
proposed cease-fire agreement and its related UNSC resolution.
8. (C/NF) When asked about his inexplicable confidence that
Hizballah would either move north of the Litani with its
heavy weapons, or allow itself to be disarmed by the LAF,
Siniora said he wasn't certain, but his on-going
communication with Hizballah through Nabih Berri and other
Shia interlocutors led him to believe they were "considering"
and close to such action.
9. (C/NF) Another area where PM Siniora felt rapid progress
was being made was the willingness of France to take a
leading role in the multi-national stabilization force (which
Siniora usually referred to as the "UN force"). Siniora said
his discussions with FM Douste-Blazy have been detailed and
fruitful. (Note: Both PM Siniora and his senior advisor,
Ambassador Mohammad Chatta, came into the meeting straight
from their talks with Douste-Blazy in ebullient spirits. End
note.)..."
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