Wikileaks: "Elias Murr is known for telling people what they want to hear..."

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BEIRUT 002583

SUBJECT: LEBANON: MURR SAYS LAF CAN DEPLOY TO SOUTH IN EIGHT HOURS

2. (C) Murr assured A/S Welch  ... not getting into specific areas of deployment, as he had in a previous meeting with Ambassador Feltman two days ago (reftel), said that the role of the LAF would be to "secure the Blue Line, secure any rockets, and stop any Hizballah or Palestinian militant infiltration in the region." 3. (C) Murr stressed that he has complete LAF buy-in for this plan. According to Murr, not a single Shi'ite LAF soldier has defected to the Hizballah militant ranks during the current conflict. He claimed that Shi'a make up 36 per cent of the LAF, down from 58 per cent just a few years ago. Contrary to rumor, the LAF has not once assisted Hizballah with firing rockets into northern Israel,...  Murr said that the LAF already has the manpower and highly-qualified special units, but he hopes that the "Saudis and Gulfis" can provide equipment.   5. (C) Murr does not believe that Shi'a acceptance of the LAF deployment plan is an indication that the military could be led into a trap whereby it is dragged into a conflict with Israel in the South. Claiming that "Nabih Berri is praying in his heart to be free of Hizballah politically," Murr said that Berri would never agree to a scheme to trap the army in the South. (Note: Most of the Shi'a in the LAF are followers of Berri's Amal party. End Note.) Murr is more worried that Hizballah and Syria will recede into the background only to ally with the "new al-Qaeda" - Sunni jihadi groups in northern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley - to support attacks on the LAF in those areas. Again, with the right equipment, Murr believes he can face down that challenge while ensuring security in the South....  7. (C/NF) Murr admitted that he does not know Berri's or Siniora's stance on these issues, but said he wants to propose to the Lebanese Cabinet that UNIFIL troop numbers in the South be increased from 2,000 to 12,000, with the aim of gaining a Cabinet compromise for 8,000. The Cabinet would then have to agree on the text of a letter to SYG Annan requesting the UNIFIL augmentation. For domestic consumption, Siniora will have to phrase the letter in such a way that the force is needed to "protect Lebanon from Israeli aggression" and to "help people return to their villages." Murr said the letter would not request a Chapter VII force, since Hizballah would never agree to such language in a GOL request, but suggested that upon receiving the letter UN SYG Annan would ask that the force come under Chapter VII since he could portray it as necessary for the security of the UN troops. "Let Kofi ask for it. He could phrase it like, 'I can not send my men there without any protection.'" Murr stressed, however, that both Israel and the USG should remain publicly mute on the Chapter VII issue so as not to provoke a Hizballah rejection.  [COMMENT]: 8. (C) Murr is known for telling people what they want to hear. .......................... End Comment.