"The Coming Shia War"

"... the Al-Khalifas have had to contend with four major handicaps: (i) Bahrain has no oil or natural gas wealth to speak of, (ii) it is literally a stone’s throw away from the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, where most of Saudi Arabia’s 15 percent or so Shia population live, (iii) the Al-Sauds, who financially support the Al-Khalifas, viscerally hate the Shia and have subjugated and deprived them for decades, and (iv) the Sunnis are, at most, 30 percent of Bahrain’s population... The Al-Sauds want the Shia subjugated and treated as third-class citizens–just like they are in Saudi Arabia. The Al-Khalifas have thrown their lot in with the Al-Sauds by mistreating their Shia majority....

This is not a pretty picture of Al-Khalifa rule in Bahrain—selling the country to the Al-Sauds and starting a process that could surely be classified as ethnic cleansing. Is this something the United States can afford to embrace? No........ How can they use military intervention to protect those in peril in Libya and do nothing in Bahrain except to advise ‘restraint’ to all parties? This sort of blatant duplicity will not go unanswered in this day and age ... America must not let its ongoing involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, its historic marriage to Middle East dictators or its need for a naval base in the Persian Gulf deter it from looking at all the facts shaping its longer-term national security interests in the Middle East.

Iran’s population is more than the population of the rest of the Persian Gulf combined, while the combined population of Iran and Iraq, both majority Shia countries, is about four times that of the six countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. Iran and Iraq are respectively 90 and 60 percent Shia, while Bahrain is about 70 percent Shia. Iraqi Shia know what it is like to be discriminated against after decades under Saddam Hussein. In fact Iraqis already protested in Basra last week in support of their brethren in Bahrain. One thing is for sure. Iran, Iraq and their surrogates, such as Hezbollah, will not stand idly by and let this persecution against Shia gather momentum. They will intervene with ominous implications not only for Bahrain, but also for the rest of the GCC and for the future of the United States in the Persian Gulf.

If the United States wants to protect its dictators in the region, it should use tough love to persuade these dictators to change while they have time.... By courting Saudis, we are sending the message that their behavior is acceptable. It is not. By supporting the Al-Sauds we are sending the same message to the people of the Muslim World, especially to all Shia. And at the same time, we are doing nothing to stop the killing of innocent people by a dictator in Bahrain. Are the Al-Sauds an ally Washington can afford? In the Middle East, it is said that you really know a person by the company he keeps. Is this how the United States wants to be known in the region, as the ally of the Al-Sauds and the Al-Khalifas? If so, then our future in the Persian Gulf is indeed a dark one.

If we continue to support despots in the Middle East we are handing Iran and Iraq unbelievable propaganda material. It is they who will have the moral high ground. We are giving them carte blanche to interfere in Bahrain, and eventually in Saudi Arabia, as the only means to prevent killings and ultimately ethnic cleansing. We are putting them on the right side of history. We must stop looking at each event in isolation. These are the conflicts that, if not addressed today, will beget the massive wars of the future."