Will Egypt rise with the Middle East's "Axis of Influence" (Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Hezbollah, Hamas & Qatar)?

“I’m really not good or comfortable at predicting past an environment-changing event.  There are a lot of questions that have to close regarding Egypt before I’ll feel able to make anything but the most broad statements. This process might end up turning the people of Egypt and the general region even more virulently anti-American than they were before.  Or it may take pressure off of the US by the US turning in time and (falsely) presenting itself as a supporter of democracy.

The US is going to have to develop and rationalize a policy toward the remaining colonial dictatorships of – after Egypt – Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and others.  What will the policy be and what will the rationalization be? As the colonial dictatorships are reaching a new equilibrium, we still have to see exactly what Iraq ends up looking like and what post-2011 agreement it can reach concerning its relationship with the United States. We have to see what government is going to form in Lebanon, what its policies will be and how it will relate to the United States.

If everything falls Iran’s way, the president of the US may have to go to Israel’s supporters and say, “We tried, but we can’t afford to try to keep the region safe for you any more.  You’d better immediately take whatever deal the Palestinians are willing to offer, and if not, you’re going the way of Apartheid.”  In that (for now unlikely) scenario, literally overnight the entire dispute between Iran and the US will dissolve.

If everything falls the US’ way, 2012 might look at lot like 2010.  It does seem close to certain that Egypt will not be the stooge of the United States and Israel that it was, but how different is not clear yet. Who is going to be Egypt’s first post-Nasser charismatic leader?  What will that person’s policies and ideas be?  How will that person relate to the rest of the region? Mubarak was the best possible ruler for Egypt from a US/Zionist point of view, as right wing Zionists have said openly all along.  The US is losing that. Between that and other changes going on in the region at the same time, I can’t guess what the US posture towards Iran will be after the dust settles.  There are a whole lot of variables.One thing Iran does, is that it seems to appreciate the value of flexibility and of not making long term commitments based on short term considerations.”