"Sovereign & wealthy Arabs will be more critical of Israel, less hostile to Iran & closer to Turkey..."

"... Libya and Bahrain are deeply associated with the world of Arab energy producers and exporters in very different ways, so the anticipation of these countries’ governments implementing policies that actually reflect the opinion of their people raises the prospect that Arab wealth and Arab public opinion might soon converge – with astounding implications for the region, but especially for Iran, Israel, Turkey, and the United States and other major Western powers.

Libya has squandered hundreds of billions of dollars in the past 41 years of authoritarian and often imbecilic rule by Moammar Gadhafi and his family and friends. Should that regime be overthrown and Libyan foreign and domestic policy be subject to the will of its people, we would likely see radically different uses of national wealth from oil income. While excessive wealth almost always fosters mismanagement, corruption and enormous waste of assets, in this case we might find that the Libyan people will insist on using their national wealth more productively and sensibly, perhaps sparking a new era of growth and human development across North Africa.

Bahrain is important in the same sense because it is located in the heart of the oil- and gas-producing Gulf region, even though it has little of its own oil left. It is nevertheless a symbol of populist citizen revolts achieving their first triumph in this strategic energy-producing region. The Bahrain revolt will be seen by many around the world mostly as a rebellion by Shiite Arabs who resent being ruled by the Sunni minority in the country. Others will worry that majority rule in Bahrain in a small country where Shiites are the majority will be another victory for Iran and its growing influence in the Arab world. Some may be concerned that a democratic Bahrain might force the United States to close its large naval base there. These are all fascinating but secondary aspects of the changes under way. The most important thing taking place in Bahrain is that national policy-making may soon occur on the basis of the majority of Bahraini citizens expressing their views freely and formulating policies in a manner that responds closely to their values, rights and aspirations........

More democratic Arab countries with plenty of money are likely to become more sovereign countries, rather than puppets of Western powers or hostages to Israeli concerns (for example, seeing their armed forces limited by what Israel allows Western countries to sell them).

Sovereign and wealthy Arab states that think for themselves are likely to make major adjustments in their relations with the three major non-Arab regional powers, namely Israel, Turkey and Iran. This would mean being more critical of Israel, less hostile to Iran, and more inclined to associate more closely with Turkey and its impressive economic and regional policies. If the United States, Europe and others abroad deal equitably with the Arabs, and also address Israel and Iran on the basis of law and legitimacy rather than naked self-interest driven by indigenous emotionalism and pro-Israeli political blackmail, they will find themselves welcomed as valuable friends and partners across the Arab world...."