Monday, February 7, 2011

"..Nervous al-Saud royals will feel pressure coming their way very soon .."

"... For the moment, Mubarak remains in place. ...Yet the Saudis may feel that a weakened Mubarak on his way out is no longer an effective bulwark against Shi'ite Iran.... Diplomats said Riyadh also worries that a diplomatic void left by a preoccupied Egypt will give openings to countries such as Turkey and Qatar, ...."Saudi influence will probably diminish, while others such as Qatar and Turkey who do not want an isolation of Iran like the Saudis will play a bigger role," said a Gulf-based diplomat.
Riyadh will be hard-pressed to find Arab allies to replace Egypt in a conservative Sunni axis wary of Iran, analysts say. Iraq and Syria already have strong ties with Tehran.
That might make Riyadh keener to ensure stability in Jordan, a Sunni monarchy also hit by street protests. "The Saudis could pump more money into Jordan," said U.S. analyst Barak Barfi.
Egypt's upheaval comes at an awkward time for the Saudi royal family. King Abdullah, is about 87 and went abroad for medical treatment in December. Crown Prince Sultan, his slightly younger brother, is also ailing. Another brother, Interior Minister Prince Nayef, is a possible candidate for future king.... The king's instinctive support for the embattled Egyptian leader revealed the extent to which Saudi foreign policy depends on long-tested personal ties. Sultan, Nayef and Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal have also known Mubarak for decades.For these stalwarts of a once-static Arab order, U.S. calls for Mubarak to cede "change now" awaken memories of American demands for reform in Iran before the shah was toppled in 1979.
"It is evident that the U.S. is abandoning Mubarak," said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut. "His regime has expired. ... If the U.S. pushes for change in Egypt, nervous al-Saud royals will feel pressure coming their way very soon."

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