"..Maybe a bump in the road .."

"... more important, Bahrain is a virtual satellite of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. Saudis drive across a 15-mile-long causeway for weekend breaks in a country that allows alcohol and tolerates prostitution. They also use Manama as a banking center, and they like having the U.S. Navy there — not on Saudi territory but nearby.

In the eyes of the Obama administration, Bahrain was a model "modernizing monarchy." Its royals attended American schools, effusively welcomed visiting U.S. officials...(i Mean WOW!)

"I am very impressed by the progress Bahrain is making on all fronts — economically, politically, socially," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the last time she visited Manama, in December...., the ebullient foreign minister replied, "Maybe a bump in the road, but we're moving forward."

But Bahrain has problems, and in hindsight they look bigger than speed bumps.

Bahrain's Sunni minority has institutionalized discrimination against the Shiite majority to keep control of the country's government, military and economy. Parliamentary districts are gerrymandered, so only 18 of 40 seats in the elected Assembly are held by Shiites. The military's officer corps is entirely Sunni...

The United States has less leverage in Bahrain than it did in Egypt. Egypt's military needed U.S. economic and military aid; Bahrain's royal family likes its alliance with the United States but doesn't need it nearly as much as it needs Saudi Arabia. Bahrain's King Hamed ibn Isa Khalifa, 61, is a weak ruler. He began his reign in 1999 with promises of reform, but in practice his regime has oscillated between periods of modest liberalization and harsh repression.

Much of the real power is wielded by the king's uncle, Khalifa ibn Salman Khalifa, who has been prime minister for almost 40 years. Khalifa, 75, is a pro-Saudi conservative who has worked to slow democratization — and, along the way, has made himself one of the richest men in the kingdom, leading to widespread charges of corruption...

The U.S. favorite in the royal family is the king's eldest son, Crown Prince Salman ibn Hamed Khalifa, 41. He's a U.S.-educated modernizer (i love this part!) and he told a conference in Turkey last week that the events in Egypt should spur Bahrain to continue its reforms. But Salman hasn't been able to get past his great-uncle, the prime minister.

If the uprising gets out of hand, there's little danger that the monarchy will be overthrown. The Saudis, who don't want to see that kind of precedent, would almost surely intervene to prop up the royal family, no matter what the Obama administration said.....

In Bahrain and elsewhere, history is calling our bluff."