'Israel has all but given up on Obama'

Oxford Analytica: Excerpts:

"... Prior to the Israeli-Egyptian security agreement, Israel's regional security policy had been based primarily on maintaining friendly relations with 'second ring' states, especially Iran and Turkey. Peace with Egypt in 1979 gave Israel a direct line of communication to the heartland of the Arab world. It also enabled Israel to cut defence expenditures from about 30% of GDP to about 9% today. The collapse of relations with both Turkey and Iran has made Israel's relations with Egypt all the more importan. Israel has viewed  Hosni Mubarak as the anchor of that agreement; ..... Following major unrest in Cairo, Israel fears that it may once again have to contend with hostile regimes both to its north and south, and that other major regional players will also be affected. ...... regional powers will no longer trust the United States not to abandon them as it has Mubarak. This could lead them to seek an accommodation with Iran for self-protection.......These fears explain why Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu this week demanded that Western countries delay according legitimacy to any new Egyptian government until it has reaffirmed a commitment to the peace agreement.... As the US position has become increasingly firm in recent days, frustration has risen sharply. US President Barack Obama is now perceived by Israel as having little understanding of Middle Eastern culture, since: senior officials consider his demands of Mubarak to have given the impression of an imperious master dealing with a servant ........he has left Mubarak with no honourable way out, and made no mention of his positive achievements during 30 years of intimate relations with Washington....... Israel compares to US demands for a total settlement freeze, making it impossible for the Palestinians to compromise on settlements. Israel also decries the demands for quick, open elections before preconditions for democracy -- an independent judiciary, the creation of a civil society and other institutions -- are put into place. Without such measures, they argue, it will be too easy for the Muslim Brotherhood to seize power. They point to Hamas's victory at the polls, and its subsequent violent seizure of power in Gaza, as a case in point. ..... In the medium term, there are fears that a new Egyptian government that includes the Muslim Brotherhood would be much more sympathetic to Hamas, and might turn a blind eye to the import of weaponry into Gaza. In the long term, the Israelis fear that Egyptian developments may lead to a greater radicalisation throughout the region ..... However, Israeli security analysts believe that any new Egyptian government will have little choice but to focus on domestic issues in the short term. Moreover, they know that a formal break with Israel could have significant economic consequences for Egypt: Egypt originally sought peace because the cost of maintaining a massive army was a huge drain ....  Gas sales to Israel are a major earner of foreign exchange.... Tens of thousands of Egyptian jobs are now dependent on the Qualified Investment Zones. Under a 2004 agreement, Egyptian exports from these zones enter the United States customs-free if they have a certain percentage of Israeli inputs. Peace process. While officials are acting cautiously, hard-line nationalists have already launched a major public relations campaign claiming that, as the potential overthrow of Mubarak has shown, any peace agreement with any Arab country is inherently at risk -- and that a deal with the Palestinians would be even more risky. Moreover, the Palestinian National Authority, seemingly attempting to ward off contagion, has announced that it will hold municipal and general elections later this year. This may provide Netanyahu with another reason not to resume the peace talks. Furthermore, the peace process has always been reliant on support from other Arab states, with Egyptian support crucial; the emergence of a different government could see this support dissolve. ..."