Monday, February 14, 2011

"Egypt protestors will have to keep up pressure during the transition period!..."

Oxford Analytica: Excerpts:
".....  In what amounted technically to a coup, Vice President Omar Suleiman announced on February 11 that authority would be transferred to the Supreme Military Council on President Hosni Mubarak's resignation ....  Economic paralysis was probably a key factor behind the timing of the military takeover, and the Council is now attempting to restore order to allow economic activity to resume -- despite the fact that strikes are underway calling for better wages, and managers. Foreign companies are resuming operations, but recovery will take time.....
Political reform. The most powerful person in the new scheme of things is Chair of the Supreme Military Council Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi. Minister of defence and commander in chief under Mubarak, he was believed to be among those most loyal to the then president. However, there are other important figures on the Council, notably Lieutenant General Sami Enan, chief of staff of the armed forces. He was less supportive of Mubarak and was believed to have opposed the idea that Mubarak be succeeded by his son, Gamal.  These differences aside, the military is part of the regime; its owes influence in national life to its support for Mubarak's government. This raises questions about its willingness to introduce reforms that will reduce its influence....  the current revolution is different (from 1952). It was not initiated within the army but by a growing class of young and well-educated Egyptians. Many of them have expressed concerns about the army takeover, and called for clarity about the specific timeframe for transition. Any ambiguity or perceived delays could lead to a tense transitional period in which demonstrations quickly resumed. .......
Leaders and parties. The broader challenge is that of achieving a new system of democratic and accountable government in an environment which lacks clear civilian leaders and parties. The uprising was organic and inclusive, with no clear organisational leadership; and while the army represented itself as the guardian of popular demands, new institutions of civil and political society must be created to secure the transition to civilian rule. This will be difficult .....
In the absence of strong political parties, individual 'caretaker' figures may emerge to shape a national dialogue. There are several such figures: Amr Moussa. ... Mohamed El Baradei. .... Ahmed Zeweil. Zeweil is a Nobel prize winning scientist who has become a prominent figure during the crisis. He is a popular and respected figure in Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood. The MB has tried to mobilise popular support against the government since the organisation was formed in 1928. However, it did not initiate the demonstrations, ...it was unable to 'hijack' them. It has thus positioned itself to benefit from political concessions without giving the government an excuse to crack down on the protests.  During the transition period, the military will seek to limit the influence that the MB has on shaping change. The extent to which protestors' demands are met during the transitional period will determine the future role of the movement. If a genuine national dialogue takes place, the Muslim Brotherhood will become a key part of the political scene. However, it will not be the only alternative political voice available...."

No comments: