"..The army will resist radical shifts in foreign policy, especially vis-à-vis Israel .."

"Hosni Mubarak will go....The decisive moment has passed. The army has signalled it will not instigate more rapid change. Sentimentality about the army being “with the people” aside, it is not clear why we should expect it to do anything other than help rebuild the regime, albeit with new constraints intended to curtail abuses by the internal security forces and curb the more rapacious behaviour of powerful figures in the former government and ruling National Democratic party and their business cronies.

What the 470,000-strong army wants is not power, but stability. Senior officers have been telling interlocutors for several years they will uphold any constitutional government, even one headed by the Muslim Brotherhood. This suggests the army has been uneasy for a time with the prospect of a hereditary presidency, the worsening social and economic strains arising from the way in which the economy has been liberalised and privatised, and the deepening lack of legitimacy of the political order. All this has dissipated any political capital Mr Mubarak once had because of his air force career.

The army’s desire for stability has several implications. First, it will prefer the recent democratic advances to continue, albeit in a controlled manner, to ensure an arrangement that will allow it to stay out of politics and off the streets. The appointment of an ex-general as prime minister may have been meant as a sop but the injection of ex-officers into the cabinet is unlikely to have been an army demand. There will be no return to military rule, not even a partial one.

Second, the army will resist radical shifts in foreign policy, especially vis-à-vis Israel, not least because of the risk to US assistance..... The behind-the-scenes role that it is no doubt playing cannot but be prompted by a desire to prevent changes that might destabilise the cold peace with Israel and jeopardise the special relationship with the US military.

Third, the army will seek to preserve its control over its own internal governance and protect its reputed economic “empire”...

The army has a real interest in securing a gradual transition to the post-Mubarak era, and has reacted with remarkable precision and calm to rapidly unfolding events. The coming days will show whether it has read public opinion accurately or not. If the demonstrations prove to have been the start of a swell rather than a crest of popular protest, then it may find its hand is forced. It will then have to choose between implementing the government curfew and opening fire on protesters, or expediting the pace of Mr Mubarak’s departure..."