WINEP (more 'new ideas'): 'Widening the circle of trusted actors to include Hezbollah-supporting Qatar instead of March14, ... Is not good!'

Every little grudge is prime time for WINEP now ... very coherent recommendations by Schenker & co.:

"....during tomorrow's press conference, STL prosecutors are widely expected to announce that they have submitted a draft indictment to the pretrial judge. The indictment -- which may remain under seal -- will set in motion a process ....in the near term, while Hizballah may potentially initiate strikes, close roads, shut down central Beirut, and surround the government offices in the Grand Serail, it seems unlikely that the militia would resort at this time to wholesale violence against March 14 and the state, now under a caretaker government. Given the political environment, even if Hizballah members were eventually convicted, no Lebanese force would be prepared to make arrests and extradite the criminals. And reinvading Beirut would only do further damage to Hizballah's image in the Sunni Muslim world. Over time, however, the Shiite militia's calculus could change.

As indictments unfold in the coming months, the key for Washington will be to maintain international support for the tribunal in the face of heightened tensions and perhaps sporadic violence. During their brief meeting yesterday, President Obama reportedly emphasized to Prime Minister Hariri the "importance of the work of the STL as a means to help end the era of political assassinations with impunity in Lebanon." The administration has also indicated that it hopes to widen the circle of regional actors involved. The risk is that by including the wrong partners -- e.g., states such as Qatar, which are more closely aligned with Hizballah than March 14 -- Washington could do more harm than good. Rather than extracting further concessions from U.S. allies, the administration should continue to emphasize the importance of the STL finishing its work"