"The outcome must be convincing; otherwise the whole system falls apart ..."

"...Will it be credible or controversial? Will independent Lebanese find it convincing or disappointing? The answers will determine the fate of the STL and perhaps that of the entire country. Regional efforts to solve the crisis between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah over the STL were pronounced dead a week ago. Hezbollah and its allies immediately withdrew from the government and caused its collapse. The political crisis continues to deepen. and the struggle over who will become the country's next prime minister has just started.

I suspect that there was no Syrian-Saudi "deal" over the STL to begin with — just consultations between Riyadh and Damascus over the fallout of the impending indictment. Both countries and others in the region worry about Sunni-Shiite unrest in Lebanon because of possible spillover ..... Because of the fog that regional diplomacy over Lebanon continues to create, many observers seem to have forgotten that there is a legal track that is progressing (albeit slowly) and that should have a final say over how events will unfold in Lebanon. International justice, not regional horse-trading, is the ultimate arbiter of whether Lebanon will find long-term peace and security. But for justice to run its course, a credible indictment by the STL is an absolute necessity. The indictment, as a strong indicator of how good a case the STL has, is the critical first step upon which everything else is built. It must satisfy expectations built over the years, and the outcome must be convincing; otherwise the whole system falls apart. We know that Hezbollah will reject, perhaps violently, any indictment against it, but it matters greatly how the Lebanese people will view and react to the STL's decision. ....  because it could lead to something never seen there before: A bloody Sunni-Shiite clash with Christians sandwiched in between and al-Qaidainvolved in the battlefield — a nightmare for Lebanon and the entire region. While a deficient indictment should not be blamed for potentially causing any violent acts in Lebanon, historians will judge that it was the trigger that led to another Lebanese civil war..."