Hariri can only bank on the Opposition's missteps!

"... This time, however, the opposition enters the fight in a much stronger position, and the March 14 camp in a weaker one. For March 8, a deal would have made most sense and landed most benefits if it came before the indictments were issued. That won't happen so it has little to lose and no longer has to worry about time. The defection of Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt from March 14 has also strengthened it. Unsurprisingly, opposition voices have already mocked the foreign support that Hariri has gotten, a clear reference to the impotence of the United States and others during the May 2008 Hezbollah takeover of Beirut. ... Violence in the immediate future is therefore unlikely, largely because the clashes of May 2008 have amply demonstrated who owns the street. Presently, Hezbollah is proceeding smartly; the division of roles puts Aoun and other allies on the forefront of the political maneuvering, thus reducing Hezbollah's visibility....

In contrast, Hariri has considerably fewer instruments at his disposal. The polarization and his steadfastness may well rally followers and reassure allies. He may even find solace in the fact that come indictment time, there may well be no functioning or legitimate cabinet to cave to Hezbollah pressure and denounce the STL. But Hariri cannot escalate on his own terms. Western and Arab statements of support will do him little good in the face of intimidation; his coalition has weakened, and he won't resort to violence. Hariri should instead bank on the missteps of the opposition. A few March 8 figures have already alluded to the option of backing a pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah Sunni for prime minister, and Hezbollah can force a feeble Jumblatt into agreeing to this formula to garner enough votes. However, a government that excludes the most prominent Sunni and is primarily designed to obstruct the STL will have the scantest degree of legitimacy and will only inflame sectarian passions. Hariri will then have to maneuver deftly to contain them while sticking to the tribunal in the hope that the truth comes out -- and that the Lebanese will not be too battered or divided to care...."