EGYPT: "stability & succession"

Oxford Analytica/ Excerpts: 

"... Some news agencies have reported that an al-Qaida-linked group called Markaz al-Mujahideen has claimed responsibility for the attack. The bombing follows calls by al-Qaida affiliates in Iraq for attacks on Christians, and has caused a sharp escalation of the sectarian problem in Egypt. ... The January 1 bombing represents a dual challenge for the government. The possibility of al-Qaida inspiration or even involvement in the attacks presents the challenge of securing Egypt against the threat of international Islamic terrorism, previously unsuccessful in gaining a foothold in the country. Yet al-Qaida-inspired or affiliated organisations can only gain support if there is discontent on the ground. The bombing thus highlights the need to combat the Muslim-Christian tensions that have made Egypt a target.....  the Sinai region has continued to experience terrorism, with tourism as the main target and major attacks in 2004, 2005 and 2006. The government has tended to blame rebel Bedouin groups or infiltration by Hamas and Hizbollah operatives.  There have been indications that terrorist activity could move outside the Sinai and alter its targets .... Alexandria has a strong MB and Salafist presence; while the MB has officially condemned the bombing, many of its members have been involved in sectarian violence, and some may be expected to become more radical as the movement is politically marginalised. In contrast to the spiralling trend of small-scale disputes elsewhere, Alexandria has witnessed sectarian incidents that appear to be deliberately incited..... Despite the serious deterioration in Church-state relations, the former needs protection from the state more than ever. Moreover, many Copts understand the value of the Pope's relationship with Mubarak. Yet much of the Coptic anger following the attacks is directed at Mubarak for failing to protect Christians. Pope Shenouda will have to let some protests happen, although he will attempt to control their levels. ....... hostile sentiments were already deeply held, and that the Alexandria bombing seems aimed at igniting these sentiments. Confrontations are likely to increase, possibly to the extent of the 1970s clashes -- yet the nature and possible international dimensions of the latest attack threaten a more complex and serious escalation. 

 

Government response. The government has been quick to blame foreign terrorists, as may be expected from an administration whose credibility has been further eroded by the November elections. Mubarak is already referring to a renewal of the anti-terrorism campaigns of the 1990s, suggesting an imminent severe security crackdown. The outcome will test the strength of the government, and of the prospects for the succession of Mubarak's son, Gamal, who is touted as the candidate to continue the stability, and protection of Copts, of the Mubarak era -- both of which are now threatened. If an escalation of sectarianism is avoided, both Mubaraks will be strengthened; if not, anger against them will increase -- and so far 'undecided' regime figures may choose to favour a military strongman rather than Gamal for succession. In the longer run, the government has persistently dealt with sectarian tensions purely as a security problem. While the crackdown has the potential to control or moderate violence, the failure to address the cultural and social roots of the problem will ensure that underlying tensions continue..."