STATE's 'take': "...It appears that only Israel has benefitted from the WikiLeaks exposure ..."

"... As the furor over the release of embarrassing and sometimes sensitive cables subsides, US officials are still bracing themselves for further difficulties.  In the Middle East, Secretary of State Clinton will be meeting with representatives from 25 governments in a previously scheduled security conference in Bahrain this weekend.  Of greater concern is the prospect of many more documents coming to light.  While most cables WikiLeaks have provided are "snapshots" as one State Department official described them this week, it is feared that longer analytical "think pieces" may soon surface. 
State Department officials are particularly incensed that their cables surfaced as a result of lax security measures at the Pentagon.  They point out their system makes it impossible to download or "dump" large amounts of classified material.  "Just think how we would have been pilloried if we were the source of the leaks instead of the Pentagon," groused one veteran State Department official this week.Still, a number of key US officials argue that while the embarrassment is real, the effect may not be long lasting.  As one State Department official puts it, "The Gulfis will clam up.  The Saudis will have `no comment'.  But these folks have nowhere else to go."... 
Moreover, as US officials survey the region, they note that ongoing efforts continue unaffected.  To begin with, next week the European Union's representative Catherine Ashton will meet with Saeed Jalili, Iran's nuclear negotiator in Geneva.  While no agenda has been set, US officials say the mere fact that the Iranians are willing to meet shows they feel the need to respond to the pressures resulting from US-led efforts against their nuclear program.  "They are scrambling to deal with the sanctions," says one key US official. The Iranians are also experiencing what some US officials euphemistically call "setbacks" to their nuclear program.  Just this week a top nuclear scientist was assassinated in Teheran and even Iranian authorities admit to having problems with "bugs" in their nuclear-related computer systems.  In the view of US officials, this has given the US and its allies more time to seek non-military means of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons capability [Although some argue that Iran already has the "capability" it is the assembly of a bomb and delivery system that the US is trying to prevent].  Still, even with more time, US officials are aware that, in the words of one diplomat, "There are two clocks ticking.  One records the slow but steady effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy and the continued, if inconsistent progress Iran is making in nuclear development."  But as another diplomat argues, "It will take three to four years for sanctions to work.  So the logic is OK.  But the time line is not."  This leads to increased speculation that the military option has become more likely.... US officials believe Israel to be capable of carrying out a significant strike on Iran.  And other US officials say privately that the Pentagon has "ramped up" its planning for a military contingency.  However, with tens of thousands of US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, well-placed US officials say that Secretary of Defense Gates and the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain unalterably opposed to the use of force against Iran.  As one State Department official put it this week, "In light of the latest flare up on the Korean Peninsula do we really have the means to carry out a major operation against Iran?".... 
  Saad Hariri's visit to Iran this week is seen as another indication of Iran's growing influence.  US officials believe that Hariri is seeking support from Teheran as he maneuvers around the highly charged issue of the UN- sponsored investigation of the murder of his father...... the pro-western Hariri has been under pressure from the US and others to accede to the Tribunal's actions.  Some US analysts see a potential rift between Teheran and Nasrallah on this issue; one that Hariri may seek to exploit. 
 Of all US friends and allies in the region, it appears that only Israel has benefitted from the WikiLeaks exposure.  Unlike other regional actors, Israeli leaders come across, particularly on the issue of the Iranian nuclear program, as saying the same things in private as they have been saying in public.  It may also help that key State Department officials have not been apprised of much of the recent dialogue between the US and Israel on the peace process.  Instead, that role, particularly the "back-channel" communications have been handled in the White House by Dennis Ross, ...... Others have been left to speculate and in some cases complain from the sidelines.  The most common complaint involves the seeming inability of the Administration to obtain a commitment from Prime Minister Netanyahu to even a modest three month partial halt to new Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank.  One veteran State Department official speculates that the Israeli Prime Minister is "willing" to accept a partial freeze but does not really "want" one. ........ the problem is that the Administration does not have the appetite to "take on" the Israelis.  With a resurgent Republican opposition, a crisis with Israel is the last thing President Obama needs say a number of veteran analysts.  And these officials argue that Netanyahu,  probably believes that he outgamed the President even before the Democratic setbacks in the November  elections."