"Damascus may accept limited clashes given that Hizbollah has the upper military hand..."

OxFan:"... Rising tensions in Lebanon have focused attention on Syria, and the role it is playing in the region, with Washington questioning the commitment of Damascus to Lebanese stability.....  The court's attention shifted to Hizbollah after investigations into Syria's involvement ended for apparent lack of evidence. Yet Hizbollah insists that the alleged 'false witnesses' involved in the implication of its ally, Syria, should be tried.  Syrian perspective. Syria regards the STL as a mechanism set up to discredit President Bashar al-Assad's government. It now views the tribunal as an instrument to cut-off Iran's reach (via Hizbollah) into the Arab-Israeli theatre, and weaken Syria and its allies vis-a-vis Israel. While Damascus was relieved when the blame for the assassination shifted elsewhere, Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem in September called the tribunal "irredeemably politicised". He said it should be replaced by a "purely Lebanese" investigation...... Sayyid had been partly vindicated when the younger Hariri said unexpectedly in September that his earlier accusations of Syrian involvement had been politically motivated and wrong.  Seeking stability. Despite these efforts to undermine the tribunal, Syria has improved its relations with Hariri. Yet cooperation is confined to the surface; and it is bitterness that endures. Both the cooperation and the attempts to discredit the tribunal stem from a fear of Lebanese instability; Syria cannot afford renewed sectarian strife in Lebanon. From Damascus' perspective, a flare up of violence provides Israel with an alibi to intervene against Hizbollah.  These fears are shared by Riyadh, an ally of Hariri, with whom Syria has reached an understanding. Saudi Arabia fears Hizbollah's assured victory over its local rivals in the event of sectarian clashes. Both seek the establishment of a broad-based inter-sectarian government. Riyadh is therefore pleased that Damascus is supporting Sunni tribes along the Syrian-Iraqi border. Damascus views as a potential threat a Shia-dominated and pro-Iranian government, since an increased risk of sectarian and ethnic strife raises the possibility of spill-over into Syria. These wider shared interests may play a role in strengthening cooperation on Lebanon, reducing the risk that the mutual understanding will collapse once the indictments are issued.  Differing views. However, the rapprochement does not represent a total shift in Damascus's foreign policy:  Iran. Syria was troubled by the massive popular welcome (for) Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad .... Despite this, Syrian-Iranian ties remain strong, and the two have gone to great lengths to consolidate their strategic alliance and provide support for Hizbollah in the face of US pressure..... Stability deal? Shared concern for stability in Lebanon has led Damascus and Riyadh to attempt to devise a plan which their rival Lebanese allies can live with. Saudi officials have been lobbying Paris and Washington to use their influence to annul the tribunal. Yet should these efforts fail, as is likely, a compromise plan has reportedly been proposed whereby Hariri would declare Hizbollah innocent after the indictments are issued.  However, these reports have not been confirmed by sources close to the Hariri camp. It is not clear that Hariri will be willing to reject the results. Nonetheless, he may have no choice but at least to nuance the indictments if Hizbollah operatives are accused. He may make a statement distinguishing between suspect and accused, or declare the individuals to be 'rogue operatives' not representing the Shia sects or Hizbollah. Yet this response is likely with or without a regional deal .... )Now), whether Hizbollah accepts such statements by Hariri without a full disowning of the tribunal; and, how the government responds to the demands of the tribunal....that will determine whether the deal is actually a 'victory' for Hizbollah or for Hariri. ..... While the regional deal and prevention of violence is Syria's priority, and has been boosted by recent efforts by Qatar and Turkey, Damascus may yet accept the emergence of limited clashes given that Hizbollah has the upper military hand. In the event that violence escalates significantly, Damascus might yet intervene on the side of Hizbollah -- and thus threaten its new relations with Riyadh. "