Tuesday, December 14, 2010

".. Gamal Abdel Nasser, ... knew a backward Islamic theocracy when he saw one ..."

"... What is indisputable is that, while from the 1920s until the 1970s Saudi Arabia and Egypt were the Arab world’s polar opposites, it is now possible to talk of looming succession crises in two countries that increasingly resemble each other – despite the rhetoric – in terms of populist Islamist fervor and limited political representation. .....  The al-Saud ruling family’s conquest of the vast territory named after themselves in 1932 was the result of the violent suppression of tribal and religious opponents and the imposition of strict Wahhabi hegemony. Cairo at the time was, by contrast, celebrated for its religious diversity, progressive Islamic intellectualism and parliamentary democracy. Gamal Abdel Nasser, for all his dictatorial tendencies, knew a backward Islamic theocracy when he saw one, and his tirades against the Saudi monarchy found enormous traction throughout the Persian Gulf.
However, since the oil boom of the 1970s, Egypt’s diminishing role in regional affairs has corresponded to the al-Saud’s meteoric rise. One result has been the irrevocable Wahhabization of Egyptian society. Anwar Sadat invited the Muslim Brotherhood back from exile in Saudi Arabia, using their Salafism to counter the leftists. Meanwhile, millions of impoverished Egyptians travelled to work in Saudi Arabia, becoming exposed to Wahhabi social norms that they, too, would eventually bring home.
That the political stagnation and social decay during Hosni Mubarak’s three decades in power have increased the Islamists’ appeal was confirmed in a recent poll conducted by the Pew Research Center. It revealed that a majority of Egyptians now support stoning as a punishment for adultery, hand amputation for theft and death for those who convert from Islam, all part of what passes for the official legal code in Saudi Arabia. That things in Egypt are now so directionless that Farouk has become an object of nostalgia might at first seem good news for the pro-Gamal Mubarak forces, or at least not bad news......


The passing on of power in Saudi Arabia after King Abdullah’s death may be messy, and will certainly be lacking in transparency, but the various branches and generations of the royal family will ultimately reach a consensus in private, as they always have. Widespread talk of a split in the al-Saud’s ranks, and possible social unrest, are as usual wide of the mark. The process of private consultation is accepted, however grudgingly, as inevitable by the Saudi majority, who will patiently await a public announcement and be eager to see social order maintained.......... if Gamal is “elected” president, it will be popularly perceived as the final nail in the coffin of Egyptian democracy, the Islamist-led opposition will likewise be galvanized and the risks of a popular revolt can’t be discounted.
So those who stand to benefit from Gamal’s dilemma in the long run, whichever way he falls, are the Islamists. The Saudization of Egyptian society will continue to deepen. How the Mubarak regime must envy the al- Saud’s iron grip on power, even as their Wahhabi agenda so threatens his own."

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