S E C R E T AMMAN 000813
SIPDIS
NEA/ELA AND INR/TCA
EO 12958 DECL: 04/02/2029
TAGS PREL, PINR, IR, JO
SUBJECT: WARY OF U.S.-IRAN ENGAGEMENT, JORDAN OFFERS WORDS
OF CAUTION
REF: A. STATE 25892 B. 08 AMMAN 3329 C. AMMAN 668 D. 08 AMMAN 3189 E. 08 AMMAN 2660 F. 08 AMMAN 3372
Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
Beware the Iranian Tentacles ... and Cut Them Off
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2. (S) The metaphor most commonly deployed by Jordanian officials when discussing Iran is of an octopus whose tentacles reach out insidiously to manipulate, foment, and undermine the best laid plans of the West and regional moderates. Iran's tentacles include its allies Qatar and Syria, Hizballah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, an Iraqi government sometimes seen as supplicant to Tehran, and Shia communities throughout the region. While Jordanian officials doubt dialogue with the U.S. will convince Iran to withdraw its "tentacles," they believe they can be severed if Iran is deprived of hot-button issues that make it a hero to many on the Arab street, such as its championing of the Palestinian cause.
3. (C) According to the GOJ analysis, Iran's influence derives from the perception that Tehran is able to "deliver" while moderates are not. The main failure of moderates as cited by radicals is ongoing Palestinian suffering and dispossession despite an international consensus favoring a viable, independent Palestinian state living peacefully next to Israel. The MFA's Deputy Director of the Arab and Middle East Affairs Department, Muwaffaq Ajlouni, put it this way: "Iran is not welcomed in the Arab world, but it is taking advantage of helpless people." From Jordan's perspective, the U.S. would benefit from pressing Israel to proceed to final status negotiations, which would garner Arab support to deal with shared security concerns about Iran.
4. (S) In Lebanon, the GOJ fears Iran's Hizballah proxy has been given too much rope and could be poised to increase its political influence during upcoming parliamentary elections. The King sees the Lebanon-Israel War of 2006 as having benefited Iran and Hizballah, by allowing a Sunni Arab street enamored of "resistance" to see past its suspicions of the Shia. And then-Foreign Minister Salah Al-Bashir in late 2008 described the spring 2009 vote as "when we will know who won last May," referring to the outcome of the Doha Accords that put an end to Lebanese infighting. Much like with the Palestinian issue, Jordanian leaders have argued that the only way to pull the rug out from under Hizballah - and by extension their Iranian patrons - would be for Israel to hand over the disputed Sheba'a Farms to Lebanon. With Hizballah lacking the "resistance to occupation" rationale for continued confrontation with Israel, it would lose its raison d'etre and probably domestic support..."
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