Who's to blame? The US, Saudi Arabia & Saad Hariri...

"... now, free-minded Lebanese are depressed. Talk of democratic revival has been replaced with gloomy scenarios of a return to civil war. To the United States, as well as the March 14 bloc, the UN investigation into Hariri’s murder represented the first step in solidifying Lebanon’s newfound freedom. The tribunal appeared to make a strong start, focusing on accusations that Syria had the motive, means, and opportunity to kill Hariri. Yet after discovering a stream of compelling evidence against Syria and Syria-appointed officials, the investigation became bogged down. Syria and its Lebanese allies — including the pro-Iranian Hezbollah — sought to block the tribunal, fearing its potential indictments and their repercussions and perceiving the international institution as a U.S. and Israeli tool to contain Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has made clear from the beginning its objection to non-Lebanese inquiries into Hariri’s death, ....... Hezbollah will not stop pressuring Saad Hariri until he ends his support for the tribunal. But Hariri and his allies, including Saudi Arabia, have invested a great deal of political capital in the tribunal’s success. Conceding it to Hezbollah would greatly marginalize Hariri and his faction and effectively hand the country over to Hezbollah. At stake in the tribunal, then, is the balance of power between Sunnis and Shia in Lebanon and broader stability in the Middle East.

How could all of Lebanon’s accomplishments since 2005, to which Washington contributed, be so quickly undone? The United States is partly to blame for the situation, having made several mistakes itself in Lebanon over the past few years — most significantly, demonstrating reluctance to intervene promptly and forcefully to prevent Israel from using excessive military force against Lebanon during its summer 2006 conflict with Hezbollah. Not only did Israel’s military campaign fail to enhance Israeli security — a primary American concern — but it strengthened Hezbollah and undermined the pro-American Lebanese government then led by Fouad Siniora.

But the United States is not solely to blame for Lebanon’s current predicament. After all, it is Saad Hariri and his Saudi allies who allowed Syria to reenter Lebanon as part of an ambitious plan to restrain Hezbollah and Iran. Hariri and Saudi Arabia reasoned that Syria would be uneasy with a Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon and offered renewed Syrian hegemony over Beirut in return for Damascus’s cooperation in containing Hezbollah’s power through the tribunal. But while Syria is indeed interested in consolidating its return to Lebanon, it is not willing to go so far as to cripple Hezbollah — because the group can be relied on militarily in the event of war with Israel — and damage its strategic partnership with Iran.

Busy trying to secure Iraq and stabilize Afghanistan, and unenthusiastic about promoting democracy in the Middle East, U.S. President Barack Obama rarely evokes Lebanon in his Middle East speeches and does not call on Syria to end its meddling in Lebanese affairs. His administration can barely convince Congress to continue providing military and technical assistance to Lebanon’s army, because American legislators believe that Hezbollah has infiltrated it. In short, U.S.-Lebanese bilateral relations have reverted to the status quo ante: virtually nonexistent......

Regardless of the STL’s outcome, it is highly unlikely that it will significantly weaken or contain Hezbollah. The United States should bolster the STL’s efforts while understanding that it may need to constrain Hezbollah for the long-term through other means — namely, initiating a strategic dialogue with Iran. Back in 2003, the Iranians privately offered to discuss matters related to Hezbollah with the United States in return for undisclosed security guarantees, but the Bush administration chose to ignore them. If U.S.-Iranian talks do take place, U.S. officials should seize the opportunity to discover what the Iranians would ask for in exchange for Tehran discontinuing its weapons shipments to Hezbollah, and retiring the group’s regional role. Perhaps the Iranians’ 2003 offer no longer holds, but it is worth knowing....."