"... Last week, Muqtada al-Sadr agreed to support Maliki's return as prime minister. That set off alarm bells in Washington, because Sadr is unalterably opposed to the US occupation of Iraq and he'd likely oppose any extension of the American presence beyond 2011, when the last of the remaining 50,000 American troops are scheduled to leave. Though Sadr has nationalist tendencies, in recent years he's drawn increasingly closer to Tehran, and a big role for Sadr in the next Iraqi government drew a strong reaction in Washignton because it would mean that Iran, not the United States, was emerging as the most powerful player in Iraq. Ken Pollack, a former CIA officer and Middle East analyst at the Brookings Institution, told the Washington Post :
"The Sadrists having a key role in the next government of Iraq [is] one of the few redlines that the Obama administration had. This is something that Iran has been trying to do for months. Clearly this is a big win for Iran and really bad for us."
But note the qualifier about "the strong support of Allawi." Indeed, Allawi is not out of the picture, not by a long shot. Lately, there are reliable reports that Allawi and Maliki are talking about some sort of grand coalition, one that would still marry the newly formed Maliki-Sadr alliance to Allawi's bloc. It isn't a done deal, and lots could go wrong.
Until now, Allawi has declared forcefully that he'd never support a government led by Maliki. But according to the terms of the purported deal, Allawi would become president of Iraq, and Maliki's position as prime minister would be greatly weakened. Indeed, according to various reports , President Allawi would have power over foreign affairs, defense, oil and energy, i.e., pretty much everything that's important. Reportedly, the deal between Maliki and Allawi was brokered by none other than Sadr, who's been in regular contact with Allawi for a long time.
The United States has strongly supported the inclusion of Allawi in the next government, and so have Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Arab Gulf countries and Turkey. ....But, in a bad sign for the United States, the Maliki-Allawi-Sadr deal seems to have been assembled not in Washington, but—yes—in Tehran. Recently, Allawi met with Syria's President Assad, and by some accounts asked Assad to work with Iran on a deal. Assad, a close ally of Iran's, visited Tehran over the weekend, where he met with Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad. The reports of the Allawi-Maliki deal surfaced soon after Assad's talks in Tehran.
The United States, of course, isn't sitting on the sidelines. Vice President Biden, who has the Iraq portfolio for the Obama administration, has been on the phone with every Iraqi leader who'll talk to him, but it's quite certain that list doesn't include the Sadrists, who put together the deal with Iran's backing....
If Maliki and Allawi do strike a deal, along with Sadr, the United States will no doubt try to put a lipstick on it, ......But the reality is that as US forces drawdown next year, the influence of Iran will continue to grow.... for now, through sheer geopolitical influence, Iran is the big dog in Iraqi politics."
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