Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's trip to Beirut [today] will likely produce a flurry of rhetorical challenges against Israel and perhaps even a visit to the Israel-Lebanon border. But one purpose of the trip may be aimed at influencing the fate of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) ...
As part of its escalating campaign to undermine the STL, Hizballah -- with backing from Damascus and Tehran -- has sought to end all official Lebanese support for the tribunal's operations. .... At the same time, Hizballah has intensified political pressure on Saad Hariri to denounce the STL and join the opposition in publicly calling for its dissolution. This campaign has taken an increasingly ominous tone. For example, Hizballah ally and speaker of parliament Nabih Berri warned of "civil strife" if the issue dragged on, and Hizballah's al-Manar website added that Lebanon would face "tough days ahead" if Hariri refused to oppose the STL by the end of September, a statement interpreted as a threat to his premiership. Syria officially joined this effort last week when it issued arrest warrants against thirty-three "false witnesses" in the case, including some of Hariri's closest aides and the first lead UN investigator, a former German state prosecutor....
In the face of increasing pressure, Hariri has so far held firm, vowing on September 29 not to "let the blood of Premier Rafiq Hariri go to waste." But with the expiration of Hizballah's September 30 ultimatum, the stage appears to be set for a potentially violent political confrontation. Several scenarios are possible:
Hariri concedes. To avert a crisis, Hariri could decide to accept Hizballah's demands, disavowing the STL, ending Lebanon's funding for it, and calling for the withdrawal of Lebanese judges.....
Hizballah walks out. If the pressure campaign against Hariri fails, Hizballah could seek to bring down his government by asking its allies to withdraw from the cabinet. The group controls ten of the eleven cabinet members needed to produce such a collapse, so it would need the support of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt or one of President Michel Suleiman's appointees (e.g., Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein, a Shiite placed on the cabinet with Hizballah's consent)...
Hariri resigns. In an effort to preserve his dignity and uphold his father's legacy amid Hizballah pressure, Hariri could decide to step down as prime minister -- an option publicly floated last week by a member of his parliamentary bloc. Although some have suggested that such a move could strengthen Hariri's hand by making it politically untenable for any other Sunni politician to accept a compromise on the STL, it could also give Hizballah the leverage needed to block formation of a new government, as in the previous scenario.
Hizballah takes to the streets. ....
Ahmadinezhad's visit -- aimed in part to reinforce Lebanon's further shift toward Syria and Iran -- may signal the beginning of a new, more dangerous phase in Hizballah's intimidation campaign. This weekend, for example, Nasrallah reiterated his determination to "stop this American and Israeli attempt to destroy the resistance." With few other choices, Hariri and the Saudis appear to be placing their faith in Syria to restrain Hizballah and maintain calm -- a role that Asad relishes ....
Although Hizballah and its allies have directed their pressure campaign against Hariri, their ultimate aim appears to center on challenging overall support for the STL by forcing the international community to choose between justice and stability. The Obama administration should use its nascent dialogue with Damascus to make clear that Syrian efforts to undermine the tribunal will have adverse consequences..... Washington should continue to reaffirm support for the tribunal and make clear that it will not countenance any political deal over its future.... "
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