Undercutting territorial integrities ....

Swoop:
President Obama’s September 23rd speech to the UN General Assembly drew attention to aspects of US foreign policy other than Iraq and Afghanistan that will occupy policy makers in the coming months. Two of the more pressing are Sudan and Somalia on which the US has launched a double initiative. On Somalia, the US is reaching out to the semi-autonomous regional entities of Somaliland and Puntland. The objective is to undercut the influence of the Islamist Al-Shabab movement. State Department officials privately acknowledge the risks involved in undercutting Somalia’s territorial integrity. “We will be proceeding cautiously,” one official told us, “but we need to take decisive action against the growing threat of terrorism.” This initiative is being coordinated with Ugandan president Museveni, who is now regarded as the key US ally in the region. On Sudan, US officials feel deepening concern that next January’s referendum on independence for Southern Sudan may lead to civil war. We expect to see strong US engagement with both sides in Sudan in the run-up to the vote. In another area of growing importance – the Arctic or High North – Administration officials are following the evolution of Russian policy closely. US policy itself is far from settled, but ongoing dialogue with the preferred partner of Canada is underway. On the more central foreign policy issues, the speech of Iranian president Ahmadinejad at the UN provoked, as we had forecast, strong criticism from Washington. However, on the nuclear issue, officials tell us that they sense a greater willingness on Tehran’s part to negotiate seriously. As before, we do not believe the risk of military action is immediate. Domestically, Obama still faces unfavorable prospects for the November elections. However, Democratic Party officials tell us that the release of the Republican Pledge to America has given them a target to aim at. As one senior Democratic activist commented to us: “This document is energizing our base voters. If they turn out in good numbers, we can still save something from the election.”