".. Obama will find it difficult to invest the requisite time & political capital in this issue to achieve progress.."

Swoop:

"...Foreign policy observers in Washington have been given much to digest over the past week. President Obama’s speech announcing the formal end of the US combat role in Iraq has prompted an outpouring of analysis on the war’s meaning, and how far the US achieved its objectives. Much of this debate will be one among regional and military specialists, but we predict it will also carry wider implications for Obama as conservative commentators make the case that he pays too little attention to military matters. Any further deterioration in Iraq’s stability will give new impetus to this criticism. This will also apply to Afghanistan to which there has been a flurry of high-level US military visitors. Despite the optimistic statements, disagreements about fundamental questions – force levels, the timing of any drawdown, relations with the Karzai government, etc – are increasingly surfacing in public. The Administration will face awkward dilemmas in answering these questions in late 2011, just as the 2012 presidential campaign will be starting. On the Middle East peace process, State Department officials tell us that that they are pleased to have made a “respectable start.” As we anticipated, they are treating the fact that a second round of direct talks will take place as a success. However, expectations remain low and optimism is hard to find. Our own assessment is that Obama will find it difficult to invest the requisite time and political capital in this issue to achieve progress. Less in the public eye, a team of Obama’s top economic and security advisers will visit Beijing next week for talks aimed at smoothing over a range of contentious issues between the US and China. As we have reported earlier, the dominant orthodoxy for US policy toward China remains one of partnership. However, irritations on economic, commercial and military issues have now risen to a sufficient level to require this special visit. US perceptions of growing Chinese assertiveness are raising doubts – which now enjoy a wider currency – about whether the policy of “engaging” Beijing will adequately protect US interests..."