Saturday, September 25, 2010

Iran's response: Proxy militias in the Gulf?

ISN Zurich:
Iran's Choices: Tehran realizes two very important facts in case of attack against its nuclear facilities. First is that if attacked by Israel and/or the United States it will be incapable of striking back directly seeing the US' domination of the skies and Israel's quasi-impregnable air defense system (with US contribution). And second, Iran also knows that it must retaliate at all costs or lose all credibility. The solution? Fight them (the US and/or Israel) by proxy. And hit them hard. And make it hurt.
How do they go about this? Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite paramilitary movement, is in a perfect position to hit Israeli towns and cities from the north and could target large centers of population as far south as Hadera and possible further. Hezbollah's arsenal includes long-range field artillery and Iranian-supplied medium-range rockets. From the south, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, can target Israeli locations, including the suburbs of Tel Aviv. Hamas' artillery is more crude and their Qasam rockets are home made and inaccurate, though they can still cause damage and casualties.
In the Gulf, Iran supports, arms, and trains Kuwait's very own Hezbollah, who in turn is believed to have been supplying training and weapons to the Bahraini Shiites, such as the 23 men who were recently arrested in Bahrain. And, of course, one must not forget the influence Tehran carries in Iraq, where the US still has some 50,000 troops deployed and where Iranian-backed militias would very likely go on a shooting spree.
How seriously should one take the accusations? Iran has periodically reminded Bahrain that the island is/was part of Iran. And if attacked by Israel and/or the US, Iran might decide to push the envelope - especially if they feel they have popular support on the island.

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