Saturday, September 11, 2010

"... 'framework document' without substance..."

Swoop:
"... President Obama’s immersion in international affairs was, as we expected, short-lived. Despite a major speech on foreign policy by Secretary of State Clinton, political reality has forced Obama himself back to the economy. With polls suggesting increasingly severe losses for the Democrats in the November mid-term elections, Obama’s core supporters have been urging him to take a more aggressive line against the Republicans. In speeches and a wide-ranging press conference, he has sought to defend his Administration’s record, put forward new proposals for economic revitalization and to highlight Republican obstructionism. Opinion is divided on whether Obama’s more energetic engagement in the pre-election fray will be enough to turn the tide of opinion. Contacts within the White House tell us that the mood there is subdued. With the political mood in the country highly polarized – even the 9/11 commemorations now serve to divide rather than unite Americans – many seasoned observers feel that Obama’s “professorial” leadership style is not best suited to his or the Democratic Party’s needs. These concerns also apply in foreign policy. In terms of the Middle East peace process, we have noted earlier that, unless the White House is prepared to commit political capital when the going gets tough, progress will be elusive. State Department officials tell us that they are optimistic that some form of “framework document” will emerge from the current negotiations. But they fear that substantive agreement will be much less easy to achieve. On a more encouraging note, the 5th-8th September visit to China by Larry Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, and Thomas Donilon, Deputy National Security Adviser, has defused some of the recent tensions in the US-China relationship. Pentagon officials hope that military exchanges will resume soon. However, the key variable is the US-China trade balance. As recovery falters in the US, we foresee rising Congressional demands to designate China as a “currency manipulator.” This would once again set back relations between Washington and Beijing. .."

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