"... The settlement population is expanding at about three times the national rate, rising from about 130,000 in 1994 to about 300,000 in September 2009 -- up 65,000 since 2004. There is little difference between the population growth rate west and east of the Separation Wall. According to government figures regarding plans in 2009 for new settlement housing units, 28% lay east of the Wall.... The idea of a two-state solution has to date been premised on the idea that borders would be drawn close to the 1967 Green Line, with certain alterations and possible land swaps. The issue of East Jerusalem is dealt with separately ...... yet continuing tension over the issue of settlements raises the question of how willing, and able, the government and settlers would be to evacuate the majority of the West Bank...... Attitudes to evacuation. ..... About 120,000-150,000 settlers would be expected to oppose a withdrawal actively by confronting security forces, using a range of methods, passive or violent. A 2010 survey by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem revealed that only 23% of settlers support removing the majority of settlements (compared to 60% in the Israeli general public), while one in five say they support all means of resisting evacuation. Policy. The Israeli government does not appear to have a clear policy on the settlements: - Its position and any concessions are based almost solely on first discovering the minimum US demands, and responding to them with compromises.
- Underlying this is the belief that it will not have to make truly painful concessions, because Abbas will be incapable of reciprocating: since the Palestinian parliament is no longer sitting, and new PNA elections are prevented by internal Palestinian divisions, Abbas has no vehicle available to legitimise any decisions.
The only thing that could alter the current government's position would be widespread public support for more concessions. ... Without broad public support, the government cannot take risks that might lead to significant domestic unrest. Under a future government with more centrist or left-wing elements, the idea may become more plausible. However, even Labour governments have proactively pursued settlement expansion in the past. Moreover, without a shift in the public perception of the peace process, domestic risks would persist. Outlook. Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama appear to have reached a modus vivendi of sorts. While Washington will continue to seek concessions from Israel, no changes of substance on the settlements issue can be expected. Relations are likely to remain cool, but correct -- interspersed with deliberately engineered 'crises' when Netanyahu finds a political need to play to his ultra-nationalist constituency, and Obama believes that he needs to show that he is 'pressuring' Israel...." |
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