'Taking aim at Israel'
WINEP's David Schenker-Al Jarallah has these pearls for your entertainment."..... Since the Cedar Revolution, Washington has obligated more than $700 million in FMF to Lebanon. Among other materiel, this assistance has allowed Lebanon to purchase rifles, bullets, man-portable antitank weapons, Humvees, and sniper equipment. For now, the congressional hold on U.S. funding appears temporary. But what would happen if Washington ended the program?In the early 1980s, the United States ramped up its assistance to the LAF, reaching $100 million in 1983 (Amine Gemayel/ May 17 agreement/...), .... the plans did not come to fruition. Under Syrian and Israeli occupation, the LAF was tasked with the sensitive job of providing internal security. Not surprisingly, when the military responded to a Shiite attack in east Beirut by targeting the southern suburbs, LAF Shiites -- who constituted some 60 percent of conscripts -- were aggrieved, and the force began to dissolve. In 1984, the United States provided just $15 million in military aid, and none in 1985.....U.S. assistance to the LAF remains a long-term, aspirational program aimed at preparing the military to someday exert sovereignty over Lebanese territory. Ironically, the shooting of Israeli soldiers earlier this month suggests that the LAF may finally be looking to establish itself as a force on the border. As Lebanese military officers have claimed since the incident, the "solders received clear orders [from command] to open fire." In any event, although this news is perhaps better than the initially reported "rogue unit" scenario, it is hardly comforting......., the incident appears to reflect a more aggressive posture -- one more in line with Hizballah and more conducive to volatility on the border.....In the coming months, the Obama administration will no doubt be looking for further signs of increased coordination between the LAF and Hizballah. A key test may come if, as widely expected, the international tribunal investigating the murder of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri issues indictments against prominent Hizballah activists. The willingness of the LAF -- and, more generally, the central government -- to act on these indictments, arrest the wanted men, and transfer them to the custody of the tribunal will be a clear sign of whether these state institutions have morphed into Hizballah's appendages or remain truly independent."
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