"... Abdullah likely wanted to use his trip to Beirut to repair his relationship with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria in order to make sure that the anticipated indictment of Hizballah operatives in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri does not blow up Lebanese politics. A return to violence in Lebanon would, in Abdallah's view, redound to the benefit of Iran, the containment of which is currently his central goal. He also wanted to strengthen Arab support for Iyad Allawi's campaign to form the next government in Iraq. Jordan and Egypt have long joined Saudi Arabia in supporting Allawi; more recently Syria seems to have joined the Arab front in favor of Allawi replacing current Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
His Beirut summit might have helped to settle down jittery Lebanese nerves, but those who see this meeting as the beginning of a new "Arab alignment of moderation" will be disappointed......... despite the Abdallah-Assad joint visit to Lebanon, the two leaders are still backing different and competing horses in Lebanese politics - Syria with Hizballah and Saudi Arabia with Saad al-Hariri and what is left of the March 14 movement. The ongoing domestic crises in Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine and Yemen are the central playing fields of the Saudi-Iranian contest for influence in the region. Syria seems to be leaning toward the Saudis on Iraq right now, but there is hardly Arab consensus on how these issues should be solved. While Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan would be happy today to return to the state-centered paradigm of the 1970s, Syria's regional influence depends on its relations with non-state actors like Hizballah and Hamas, which continue to have its headquarters in Damascus. With Iraqi politics still a mess, Lebanon as factionalized as ever, the Palestinians split between Hamas and Fatah and Yemen pulled in numerous directions, all the Arab states find themselves playing in the domestic politics of their neighbors and frequently backing opposing parties.....
The recent hopes for a revival of the Arab solidarity of the 1970s are therefore destined to be dashed on all scores. King Abdallah is playing the long game with Syria, hoping over time to move it away from its alliance with Iran. (After failing in his earlier policy, in conjunction with the Bush Administration, of isolating and pressuring Assad.) But until there is a fundamental reassessment in Damascus about its regional role, Arab cooperation is bound to be a limited, issue-specific, and a short-term phenomenon. That means that no one should expect any significant all-Arab initiatives on the Arab-Israeli peace process any time soon. It also means that Iran will not face a unified Arab front in opposition to the expansion of its regional influence or to its nuclear ambitions."
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