"...By July next year, I'll wager that neither Israel nor the US will have bombed Iran. ..."

Robin Wright in the Atlantic: (whatever happens in the Atlantic, stays in the Atlantic)

"...We're nowhere near the point of no return. Far from it........, Iranians are masters at brinksmanship. ....

Iran has called for talks with its Western interlocutors after Ramadan, the holy month of fasting that ends in mid-September. (Last week, The New Yorker published an interview with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivering that message yet again.) The Obama administration is currently preparing for those talks -- and taking them seriously. The main focus would be an interim deal, which would in turn open the way for comprehensive talks on Iran's nuclear program. If Iran is also serious, this two-phase diplomatic process could go into late 2011 or longer.

Second, the Islamic Republic is also adept at not saying no. If diplomacy ultimately breaks down, Tehran has a long history of making it appear (sometimes accurately) that the impatient West walked away first -- and should be blamed for failure. The perception about who is to blame is critical to the next step -- returning to the United Nations for another resolution imposing more stringent sanctions or endorsing other punitive action. For the United States and its European allies to win backing for meaningful measures -- and not face a Russian or Chinese veto -- Iran must be seen as the guilty party. The shrewd Iranians know that....

Third, among the many things being debated in many capitals is just what the threshold for military action should be. Should it be Iran building a bomb, like Pakistan? Or having a quick turn-around capability, like Japan? Or achieving a certain number of centrifuges? Or gaining some murkier level of knowledge? Capitals currently disagree......

Sure there's a clock. In fact, there are lots of clocks, all ticking at different speeds. Israel's is just the fastest. Its alarm has been close to ringing for at least a decade. And Iran's clock is the slowest.....

But for the tough decisions that lie ahead, it would have been useful to do the same extensive reporting in Beijing, Moscow, Ankara, and Riyadh, as well. Unlike the previous administration's decision on Iraq, the Obama administration appears intent on developing international consensus on Iran. Each of the four will have an important say in finding common ground. They also reflect how the world has changed since Israel's 1981 attack on Iraq's Osirek reactor and why attacking Iran will be far different than Israel's 2007 bombing of Syria's secret reactor.

China is now one of Iran's most important trading partners (as well as one of the largest holders of U.S. debt). Its companies could help Iran circumvent sanctions. Beijing also views Iran as an issue it can leverage to enhance its position. Russia built Iran's light water reactor that is about to open at Bushehr. It views Iran as a growing market for conventional arms. And the Islamic Republic has become one of its few Middle East allies in the post-Cold War world -- and one it does not want to lose. Turkey borders Iran and recently brokered a deal with Tehran that was rejected by Washington. It, too, views Iran as an issue to prove the importance of rising middle powers. All three countries firmly oppose the military option. All three are also on the U.N. Security Council, two with veto power.

Saudi Arabia certainly doesn't want Iran to get the bomb. But the kingdom is just as traumatized over prospects of yet another conflict in the world's most volatile region that pits the West against a Muslim land -- and potentially unleashes nightmarish political, economic, and security consequences.

Last but not least, Iran itself needs to be factored into the equation. "The Point of No Return" assumes that the Iranians have no real interest in negotiations -- and are only willing to engage to buy more time to develop a bomb. Maybe. It's easy to draw that conclusion from their exasperating failure to cooperate with the international community over the past seven years and their often childish negotiating tactics. But maybe not. Tehran understands the consequences of being caught red-handed with the bomb. For the right price, the theocrats may still be willing to do a deal. Iranians love to barter, but any transaction has to be seen to profit both sides. The more basic problem may be simply knowing how to read each other -- a problem that has characterized most dealings between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 revolution......

I would now like to make that same bet with Goldberg. By July next year, I'll wager that neither Israel nor the United States will have bombed Iran."