"...Obama takes the classic path of troubled presidents: he leaves Washington & takes to the campaign trail..."

SWOOP:

It was has been an awkward week in Washington for President Obama. Much against his own will, he participated in what one senior official described as a “ritualized reversal” of this Middle East policy. Further, he now has to accept that, even with Democratic control of both Houses of Congress, he cannot obtain additional stimulus spending, thus leaving him with few options to create new jobs before the November mid-term elections. In response to this climate of gridlock, Obama has taken the classic path of troubled presidents: he has left Washington and taken to the campaign trail.

To start where the week began with Israel, an active debate has been underway in Washington foreign policy circles about whether the Obama Administration would be able to adjust the US relationship. The underlying bedrock of US support for Israel was never in play, but there was some expectation from Obama’s early speeches advocating a “New Beginning” for relations with the Muslim world that a more even-handed approach might be possible in which the US applied real pressure on Israel to modify some of its positions. The realities of US politics have now dictated limits to how far he will be able to proceed in this direction. Despite Obama’s assurances to Palestinian Authority President Abbas, US officials tell us privately that they are deeply pessimistic about any immediate advances in the peace process – a conclusion which we have long asserted.

Obama’s honeymoon on Afghanistan following his appointment of General Petraeus to take command continues. Behind the scenes, however, the new CENTCOM commander will face serious and substantive disagreements about military tactics. Casualties will continue to climb, the US military will resort to increased use of air power – which the consequent result of more civilian casualties. This in turn will fuel underlying tensions between the top US officials in Washington and Kabul, as well as exacerbating the increasingly poor relations with President Karzai. Afghan policy will be a central agenda item when British Prime Minister Cameron visits Washington on July 20^th. To prepare for this, US officials have been downplaying political tensions over BP. If all goes well with ongoing efforts to cap the leaking well, we expect this issue to fade from White House priorities.