'Al Faqih' Dawood Schenker: "Trouble in Lebanon"

'Sheikh Afif al Nabulsi'

For Washington, the death this week of Lebanon's most prominent and respected Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah, was a bittersweet moment.

In 1983, Fadlallah, a vocal proponent of suicide bombings, .... Yet his death now paves the way for a more militant, Iranian-influenced strain of Islamic ideology to gain ground in Lebanon.

Fadlallah represented the most credible moral, political, and theological alternative to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia......

To Hezbollah, the departure of Fadlallah is an opportunity to co-opt local Shiites -- traditionally aligned with quietist Iraqi religious leaders -- to the more militant ideology espoused by Iran's supreme leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The effort to shift the orientation of the community will take time, but should Hezbollah succeed, it will strengthen Tehran and further erode Washington's influence in the region. (Schenker must be under the illusion that Lebanon's Shia's were equally divided between those supporting Hezbollah and the 6 or 7 who supported Ahmad al Assad, Uqab saqr & Ghazi Youssef!)

Fadlallah was a marja, the most senior rank in the Shiite clerical hierarchy. ......With Fadlallah gone, and Sistani nearly 81, Iran and Hezbollah hope to nudge Lebanon's Shiites toward Tehran and Khamenei.

But this is a long term project. In the short term, Hezbollah seems poised to elevate a sympathetic local cleric to fill the vacuum. Sheikh Afif Nabulsi, a former student of Fadlallah who was among the founders of Hezbollah, is a leading contender in this scenario. Not only does Mr. Nabulsi have close ties to Tehran, he recently visited Damascus where he was feted by top Syrian intelligence official Muhammed Nassif. ......has also already demonstrated his bona fides to Hezbollah. ...... But even if no local marja emerges, in the absence of Fadlallah, Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons will benefit. Without a spiritual guide, religious Lebanese Shiites will choose between Sistani and Khamenei. And with Hezbollah as Khamenei's local campaign manager, it is all but assured that Tehran will strengthen its foothold in Lebanon.

Perhaps an Iranian takeover of Lebanese Shiite religious institutions was inevitable....... Since 2003, Iran has been cultivating Moqtada al-Sadr in Iraq, and when the octogenarian Sistani passes from the scene, it is all but assured that Tehran will try to install Sadr in his stead. ..... How ironic, though, that Fadlallah -- a man who Washington labeled a terrorist in 1995 -- stood as the last bulwark against near total Iranian hegemony in Lebanon.