Friday, June 18, 2010

"... we must except “something” from Israel in the near future..."

DailyStar/ here

A meeting this week of Israeli Labor Party officials has in effect issued Ehud Barak an ultimatum: ..... The message: Israel needs a daring political initiative to exit the impasse caused by the government’s latest outrage, the deadly attack on the Mavi Marmara.

Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar Assad told the BBC this week that Israel’s “pyromaniac” government is set on launching a new military conflict in the Middle East. Assad says the deadly attack on the Gaza aid flotilla marked a turning-point, as the clearest indication yet of how the government in Tel Aviv opposes engaging in any meaningful peace moves.

One can read much into the timing of these coinciding developments, but one thing is clear. Both sides – senior figures in the Labor Party, and the person at the head of the regime in Syria – are pointing to the same incident, the Freedom Flotilla massacre, as a signal that things have gone too far.

The ultimatum to produce peace, by the Israelis, and the warning of a coming conflagration, by the Syrians, should naturally register in Washington. However, the White House has a full plate. The BP oil spill is sapping much of the administration’s time, and more importantly, there is a November deadline approaching: President Barack Obama has less than four months to improve his team’s performance, in time for congressional mid-term elections. The tenor of the second half of his term, and the possibility of obtaining another, hinge on this poll.

Meanwhile, the American administration’s headline-grabbing confrontation with Iran will continue to play out in the wake of the recent United Nations sanctions vote. Tehran isn’t facing a unified front; there’s a divergence in the Russian and Chinese positions and the situation is certainly fluid, as the Iranian regime, or presidency, appears to march to its own drummer. While Iraq and Afghanistan-Pakistan provide still other diversions for the White House, in the “traditional” Middle East, the latest pronouncements coming out of Syria and Israel signal that things are heating up here, to a dangerous degree.

And when domestic politics in Israel moves toward confrontation, we can expect the government to take steps to remain in power. We might experience a cool summer, followed by a heated fall and winter, but in any event, we must except “something” from Israel in the near future, whether it’s a positive move, in the form of sincere peacemaking, or a negative one, and we all know what those are like.

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