"...Foreign pressure is a rallying point against the opposition, while negotiations enhance his prestige...."

Tony Karon in TIME/ here

".... Exactly a year ago, Ahmadinejad, and the Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei who abandoned the electoral neutrality required of his office and openly backed the incumbent, ..... A regime founded on a balance between clerical rule and limited representative democracy was seen to give way to naked authoritarianism, with the Revolutionary Guard playing a central political role, and that alienated even many conservative clerical and political figures......... the regime was never at risk of collapse. Ahmadinejad could still count on the support of millions of Iranians, and that meant any mass defection of the security forces was unlikely. The regime avoided the politically risky "Tiananmen option" of unleashing unrestrained military force to clear the streets, .....

Although the resilience of the demonstrators surprised many, over a matter of weeks the state managed to reclaim control over the streets.... The opposition Green Movement — a loose coalition — was forced to recognize that a power shift is not imminent, and to embark instead on a "long march." ...... While there may be some protest activity to mark the anniversary, nobody is predicting another wave of mass demonstrations now.

One clear recent sign of Ahmadinejad's renewed confidence was the fuel-swap agreement he brokered with Turkey and Brazil in an effort to resolve the nuclear standoff on Iran's terms. Although the deal was ignored by the U.S. and the other major players on the U.N. Security Council, which on Wednesday adopted further sanctions measures, the fact that it was offered at all signals a shift. An earlier version of the fuel-swap deal, offered by the U.S. last October, was initially embraced by Ahmadinejad but then dropped like a hot potato when he came under a firestorm of criticism from across the political spectrum.

....The Turkey-Brazil deal may not have prevented sanctions, but Iran's diplomatic position may actually be a little better now than it was a year ago. The new sanctions were expressly designed, at the insistence of Russia and China, to avoid creating significant economic pain. And the dissenting votes by Turkey and Brazil negated the desired message of international unanimity. ..... the Western powers agree that the sanctions vote is aimed at enhancing the prospect for negotiations, rather than precluding them......

Having achieved the best sanctions that an international consensus will allow, the Obama Administration will now find itself pressed, by the likes of Moscow and Beijing, to return to the diplomatic track. And on that front Ahmadinejad is certainly not about to cry uncle. ...... Ahmadinejad knows that his domestic position is strengthened by either option being considered by the West right now — foreign pressure is a rallying point against the opposition, while negotiations enhance his prestige.

A year after the events that cast a dark shadow of doubt over his ability to govern the country, Ahmadinejad may well believe he has weathered the storm. At least for now. But while he may believe that time is on his side in his showdown with the West, his domestic opponents — taking a long view — may feel the same way."