"Needed: A long-range strategy for dealing with a nuclear Iran & not box ourselves into war..."

Bruce Riedel in the Daily Star/ here

"... President Barack Obama wisely tried to engage the regime; that effort has failed to attract Iran to talk seriously. Now we are looking at sanctions. Few expect those to change the regime in the foreseeable future or to persuade it to give up its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. For years, the US has kept the option of a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities “on the table.” As an option however, it should not become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We need instead to develop a long-range strategy for dealing with a nuclear Iran and not box ourselves into war.

Retaining the threat of a military strike is seen as increasing American bargaining leverage. Not only does it supposedly intimidate Iran, but it may help Washington persuade other countries to tighten and enforce official sanctions. The US can argue that sanctions are preferable to military force, but that sanctions will only work if all cooperate.

The strike option, however, lacks credibility. The US is already engaged in two massive and unpopular military campaigns in the region, with almost a quarter of a million troops deployed. Given Iran’s ability to retaliate for a strike against it by making the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan much worse for us, it is simply not credible that the US would use force in the foreseeable future. A third war in the region between the US and Iran, with a spillover into Lebanon and maybe Gaza, would be a disaster for US interests.

And the technical reality remains: neither Israel nor the US can slow Iran very long from its pursuit of a bomb, even with a massive strike....

There are dangers to an open-ended threat of force approach. Saying we will not tolerate a nuclear Iran and will use force to prevent it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy and box in decisions. There is a better way: sanctions, deterrence and containment....

What’s more, Iran has already proven its willingness to wage proxy and terror wars against the US and Israel prior to having nuclear arms; it is doubtful a small nuclear arsenal would offer it many more options than it has already employed...."