"... Iran’s fight for influence in Iraq has not been won — it is only just starting"

LOWY institute/ here

".... in its dealings with Iraq it has shown a clear understanding of its own national interest. Iraq is a complex and immature political landscape. It thus represents an opportunity for Iran to achieve what it has sought since pre-revolutionary days — regional influence befitting its view of itself and ultimately, the role of regional security guarantor in place of the US.

The first step in achieving this aim is to establish an Iraq devoid of US troop presence, where pro-Iranian Shi’a dominate politically but where the Shi’a nationalists and Sunnis are sufficiently empowered to ensure their quiescence but not powerful enough to stymie Iranian interests. And this influence is best entrenched while the institutions of state are still relatively weak.

In the not too distant future it is quite possible that the two countries may once again become rivals: as energy producers, as centres of Shi’a Islamic learning (and the economic benefits that accrue with it), but more worryingly for Iran as alternative models for Shi’a (and indeed multi-confessional) political development.

The notion of Iran as Iraqi kingmaker therefore sits well with Tehran. And if the post-election events are anything to go by it appears to have made a good start in achieving this position.....

But even as US influence recedes as its troops leave, the field is not being left to Iran. Saudi Arabia has sought to blunt Iran’s influence by engaging with a broad spectrum of Iraqi political players, in contrast to its virtual dismissal of the 2005 election (along with many Iraqi Sunnis) which resulted in a diminution of its influence.....

For those interested in Arab political development it is going to be an interesting struggle to see whether nationalism, ethnicity, sectarianism or naked economic self-interest wins out in Iraq in the long term. There is no doubt that Iran seeks to become the dominant external influence in its western Arab neighbour, but there are any number of potential roadblocks both at present and into the future that may serve to stymie Tehran’s intentions. Iran’s fight for influence has not been won — it is only just starting."