STRATFOR: "The US, Saudi Arabia & Egypt to exploit Iranian-Syrian disagreements over Iraq ... "

STRATFOR

"BARACK OBAMA “DROPPED IN” on a meeting between U.S. National Security Advisor Jim Jones and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Monday. In addition to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Obama joined Jones and Barak in discussions about the Iranian nuclear threat...

The American president joining the Jones-Barak meeting is significant given recent tensions between the United States and Israel over the Jewish state’s move to build additional settlements in the West Bank...

Beyond the fact that meaningful progress on the Israeli-Palestinian is not likely in the foreseeable future, the Obama administration has much bigger problems to deal with in the region, namely, an increasingly assertive Iran. The struggle with Iran also has its complexities, including Iraq, the nuclear issue, Afghanistan and Hezbollah. But Iran — despite its baggage — is one problem the United States has to deal with, and soon.

“Obama’s meeting with Barak helps in terms of reminding the Iranians that the U.S.-Israeli spat is temporary, and that there are limits to how far Tehran can exploit it.”

The problem is that Washington is neither able to impose an effective sanctions regime nor exercise the military option without unacceptable risks, so any diplomacy it engages in will be from a position of relative weakness. Therefore it has to try and improve its bargaining power. At present, the Iranians feel they have the upper hand in the struggle because of a number of regional cleavages.

Iran takes comfort in a host of regional dynamics. These include Iraq, Syria, Turkey ... and the American-Israeli rift. If the United States is to deal with Iran from a position of relative strength, it must first reshape the regional situation, at least as far as Iranian perception is concerned....... there are limits to how far Tehran can exploit it. Similarly, there are efforts by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to exploit Iranian-Syrian disagreements over Iraq to try and pull Damascus away from the Iranian orbit. Likewise, Washington is also hoping it can get Turkey to take a more firm stand against Iran.

The intent in all of this is to try and demonstrate to the Islamic republic that it does not exactly have the upper hand, and force it to change its behavior to reach a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, there are signs that the Iranians might be willing to cut a deal. There have been reports about the Iranians relaying to the Saudis their desire to hold talks, and discussions between Saudi Arabia and its Arab partners about the possibility of Arab-Persian diplomacy.

Iran’s interest in such negotiations is to secure recognition from the Arab states for an Iranian regional role. Certain Arab quarters are of the opinion that such talks ought to be held in the interest of containing rising Iranian regional clout. The Saudis, however, are fearful that any such negotiations favor the Iranians more so than the Arabs, and are therefore reluctant.

But it is the Israelis who are the greatest opponents of any such regional settlements. Any greater alignment between the Arab states contradicts the Jewish state’s need to maintain divisions among its Arab neighbors. More importantly though is the need to prevent any regional settlement with Iran, which could rehabilitate the clerical regime within the international community.

This would explain recent Israeli claims that Syria has provided Hezbollah with Scud missiles, which were(the claims) likely designed to undermine any regional settlement move, especially one involving the Persians. Therefore, the United States faces a major challenge in terms of not just reaching a detente with Iran, but also making sure that such an arrangement does not threaten Israeli interests."