Monday, March 8, 2010

WINEP straddling: Hezbollah is lost, unless an Israeli aggression saves it...

Is Schenker asking Israel to refrain from attacking Lebanon & Hezbollah? As always, well documented (ELAPH, Der Spiegel & Al Siyasa)... WINEP, here

"....... after the Shiite terrorist organization fought Israel to a standstill in 2006, Hezbollah's stature in the Arab world skyrocketed. Not only was Nasrallah the most compelling Arabic orator, Hezbollah became the most positive personification of Shiites in the largely Sunni Muslim region.

That was 2006. Today, while Hezbollah remains a formidable "resistance" force, in the past two years, a number of setbacks have tarnished the organization's carefully cultivated image in Lebanon and the broader Arab world. Hezbollah's military prowess may not be in doubt, but now for the first time, Lebanese and other Middle Easterners are starting to question the organization's once unscrupulous morality. ..... First came a damaging report in the May edition of Der Spiegel, implicating the militia in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri. .......The rallies challenged Iran's clerical leadership and its controversial doctrine of velayat-e faqih (Islamic government), threatening the seat of power of Hezbollah's spiritual leader and financial patron Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei........Salah Ezzedin, went bankrupt in a Ponzi scheme, a la Bernard Madoff........ The Ezzedin affair implicated Hezbollah in the same kind of corruption it routinely accused the pro-West Sunni Government in Beirut of perpetrating.......... According to the Arabic news service Elaph, he also instructed Hezbollah clerics to issue a "fatwa-like" directive forbidding the mention of the militia in connection to the scandal, ........

One article in the pro-Hezbollah Lebanese daily Al-Akbar, written by the paper's editor Ibrahim al Amin shortly after the scandal broke, provides a good picture of the sentiment of Hezbollah's base. Al Amin accused the organization of going soft after decades of hardship and of starting to live the good life corrupted by "greed." This cultured lifestyle, he wrote, was "in opposition to the principle of sacrifice" that once was the hallmark of the resistance. Ending with a flourish, al Amin cited the famed Israeli Ministry of Defense advisor on Lebanon, Uri Lubrani, who long ago said that Israel would only defeat Hezbollah "when it became infected with the virus of the Palestinian Liberation Organization in Lebanon, in other words, when it alters its appearance and becomes bourgeoisie.",......

Not surprisingly, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Siyasa reported on February 28 that some time ago Nasrallah had contacted Supreme Leader Khamenei, requesting $300 million in funding to stave off a "crisis of confidence" among his constituents. Khamenei approved the appeal, and according to Al-Siyasa, the funds were transferred to Nasrallah by Ahmedinajad when they met in Damascus last week......

During the dinner in Damascus for Ahmedinajad and Nasrallah last week, Assad pledged his regime's continued backing for Hezbollah. "To support the resistance is a moral, patriotic and legal duty," he said. Four years after the last war with Israel and a following a string of Hezbollah miscues, although the Shiite militia dominates Lebanese politics, Assad's sentiments today appear to be shared by a minority of Middle Easterners. While the organization is making great efforts to reverse the tide, absent another war with Israel, the decline of Arab support for Hezbollah is a regional trend that's likely to continue.

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